We must wait until night, but there’s still a seven-game slate in the NBA tonight. I’ve picked out three bets from the AI Model that I wanted to share with all of you below. Let’s get right to it before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Hornets/Bucks Over 223.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Spurs +3 (-110) at Bet365
- Lakers -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The AI Model believes the Bucks and Hornets will combine to score 224 points. However, at Bet365, the total is currently at 223.5. That means the Over has some value tonight.
Milwaukee’s Defense Is Still Below Average
The Milwaukee Bucks had high expectations coming into the season. However, they’re 7-9 and have a below-average defense.
The Bucks have allowed 115.2 points per 100 possessions. They’re not forcing turnovers and will likely get beat on the glass, knowing the Hornets have earned 32% of offensive rebounds per game this season. While the Bucks likely won’t allow many foul shots, the Hornets should still see a boost on the scoreboard from all other areas.
Something Is Clicking!
The Bucks aren’t an elite defense yet. However, Milwaukee has won three straight games and scored at least 122 points in the last two games.
The Bucks have recorded a 56% effective field goal percentage and have only turned the ball over 13.8% of the time. It’s also more likely the Bucks will find themselves at the foul line more than usual because the Hornets have a high free-throw rate defensively.
The Pick
I’ll take the Over 223.5 and ride with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Hornets/Bucks Over 223.5 (-110) at Bet365
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Our AI Model thinks the Spurs will only lose to the Warriors 114-112. With the Spurs currently +3, San Antonio has a slight edge in this one.
A Tricky Game For The Warriors
The Golden State Warriors don’t match up entirely well against the Spurs. For one, the Warriors have struggled to get to the foul line consistently. That should continue against a Spurs defense that ranks No. 2 in the NBA in free throw rate defensively.
Beyond that, the Spurs have held teams to a 53.4% effective field goal percentage and have allowed just 28.5% of offensive rebounds. It’ll be hard for the Warriors to stay consistent, especially coming off a game yesterday.
Can the Spurs take advantage of the foul line?
The Spurs have only scored 112.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s not going to cut it against the Warriors. However, the Warriors have allowed a free throw rate of 20.3, and the Spurs have added a free throw rate of 20.8.
The Spurs are more likely to get to the foul line, especially at home. If San Antonio can take advantage, they’ll stay in this game and potentially win outright.
The Pick
I’ll happily back the Spurs at +3.
NBA Pick: Spurs +3 (-110) at Bet365
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model thinks the Lakers will earn a 120-115 win at home against the Nuggets. Right now, you can find the Lakers at -4.5. Therefore, the best bet is the Lakers against the spread.
Preventing The Nuggets From Getting To The Foul Line
The Denver Nuggets have scored 116 points per 100 possessions. They’re not shooting a high effective field goal percentage. They’re also just slightly above average in turnovers and offensive rebounds. The Nuggets can earn plenty of second chances on the glass. However, the Lakers usually keep teams off the foul line.
The foul line is Denver’s bread and butter. If the Lakers can win the foul-shot battle and force Denver into more complex shots without freebies, they’ll be in great shape late in this game.
Better Shooting From The Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%, leading to 118.8 points scored per 100 possessions. Los Angeles has performed much more consistently on offense and has earned the highest free throw rate in the NBA.
That rate might not be as high tonight against the Nuggets. But Los Angeles should still have opportunities on the offensive glass. They’ll, again, take better shots and get good looks.
The Pick
Let’s take the Lakers at -4.5.
NBA Pick: Lakers -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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