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Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s game between the Giants and Steelers. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Steelers.
NFL Pick
- Steelers -6.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, October 28, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Trend About Pittsburgh’s Wins
If you feel like the Steelers will win but have doubts about whether they will cover, then you should put those doubts to rest.
All of Pittsburgh’s wins have come by seven or more points. Its two home wins came by ten or more points.
Trend About The Giants’ Situation
One trend that indicates that the Giants will lose Monday’s game is this: New York is 0-9 SU in its last nine games before facing the Commanders.
This trend has already extended its relevance to this season. In Week 1, the Giants lost to Minnesota 28-6 before they faced the Commanders in Week 2.
Washington is one of New York’s NFC East rivals. So, the Giants carry extra excitement for their games against the Commanders. This excitement induces them to lose focus on the team that they face before Washington.
Daniel Jones Trend
Daniel Jones, New York’s quarterback, has been named the starter for Monday’s game. This is great news because he is a reliable loser on primetime television.
Most recently, in a Sunday Night Football game, his Giants mustered seven points in a ten-point home loss to Cincinnati.
Jones has never won a game on Thursday or Monday night. Overall, he is 1-14 in primetime. What is most relevant for this upcoming game: he is 0-7 on Monday Night Football.
It is not like Jones’ teammates are causing the Giants to lose in these situations.
His career passer rating on Monday Night Football is an awful 72.4, whereas his counterpart, Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson, boasts a passer rating of over 30 points higher on Monday night.
Missing Andrew Thomas
The Giants’ offense looked anemic two weeks ago, which was on primetime against the Bengals. It continued to look anemic last Sunday but for a different reason.
All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas suffered a season-ending injury that caused him to miss last week’s game. Without him, the Giants scored three points in a loss to a Philadelphia team that had allowed at least four times as many points in each of its other games.
Pittsburgh’s Pass Rush
The outlook for Pittsburgh’s defense is excellent because it is a primetime game — which means that Jones will struggle — and because Pittsburgh has excellent pass rushers.
Last week, the Giants allowed sacks at an absurd rate of over 21 percent.
Expect elite All-Pro pass rushers TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, and others to take advantage. These two players have combined for 7.5 sacks so far.
Overall, advanced stats show that the Steelers do a great job in general of applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks. They also excel at pressuring them quickly, in under 2.5 seconds.
Pittsburgh’s Stable Defense
The Steelers’ tackling in its last game looked abysmal. They still only conceded 15 points because their defense, ranking eighth overall, is so solid.
But expect them, as a point of pride, to emphasize sound tackling in this game.
Running back Breece Hall, for the Jets, is the player who really caused them problems in the open field.
Pittsburgh focused on locking down the Jets’ top wide receivers, whom they limited to a combined total of fewer than 100 yards, which created more space for Hall.
The Giants anyhow lack a running back who is similarly effective as Hall, and they lack wide receivers who are as dangerous as Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
The Giants are essentially a less talented version of the Jets team that Pittsburgh just pummeled.
Handling New York’s Pass Rush
One’s best possible argument in favor of the Giants must center on their pass rush. They do have a good pass rush.
But a good pass rush does not scare Pittsburgh. The Steelers already beat the Broncos and Jets by seven or more points, both of which are teams that rank top-three in sack percentage.
With Russell Wilson at quarterback, Pittsburgh also did the ninth-best job last week at limiting sacks.
The Deep Ball
Despite the demonstrated quality of the Jets’ pass rush, Wilson was able to hold on to the ball for a long time, as his high TT (time to throw) average indicates.
He ably connected with wide receiver George Pickens on deep balls. Pickens is great in contested catch situations, which makes it easier for quarterbacks to connect with him.
But Wilson also proved to be impressively accurate. People doubted his head coach’s decision to replace Justin Fields, but Wilson’s accuracy justifies the decision.
New York has a significant cornerback problem that makes its pass defense vulnerable to the likes of Wilson and Pickens.
For the Giants, Nick McCloud is yielding a 125 passer rating while fellow cornerback Deonte Banks is allowing a 132.2 passer rating. Both allow a lot of yards per reception.
Pittsburgh’s Rush Attack
After allowing 269 rushing yards in their last game, against the Eagles, the Giants rank 25th in rush defense.
Najee Harris, for Pittsburgh, will take advantage. He is coming off his best two games of the season: after amassing 106 rushing yards on 7.6 YPC against a Las Vegas team whose rush defense ranks slightly higher than that of the Giants, Harris collected 102 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC last week.
With Jaylen Warren also rounding into form, as evident in the visible smoothness with which he ran dangerously last week, the Steelers are well-stocked at running back, which must compel the Giants to devote extra resources to try to stop the run, which would make the Giants more vulnerable in the back.
Takeaway
Pittsburgh has the pass rush, the pass attack weapons, and the ground game to take advantage of the Giants’ vulnerabilities.
New York’s offense will continue to struggle, as it faces another strong defense. While the matchup favors Pittsburgh, the Giants are anyhow in a bad spot.
NFL Pick: Steelers -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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