Three teams have already advanced into the second round of the MLB playoffs. However, there is still one Game 3 in the National Wild Card.
The New York Mets will face the Milwaukee Brewers one final time to decide who will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS. The Mets won the first matchup but the Brewers rallied for Game 2 of the series.
Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a closer look at the MLB odds and see what play should we consider for tonight’s action.
MLB Pick
- Mets ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, October 03, 2024 – 07:08 PM ET at American Family Field
We’ll get Jose Quintana on the mound for the Mets and Tobias Myers pitching for the Brewers. New York has the veteran pitcher, but Milwaukee has a pitcher who can earn way more strikeouts.
With that in mind, the AI Model believes the Mets will add a 4.2-3.9 victory on the road to move on into the NLDS. With the Mets currently at +110 on the moneyline, the best value play of the night is the Mets at +110.
Milwaukee’s Matchup Against Quintana
The New York Mets will roll with Jose Quintana tonight. The veteran lefty has a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA on the season. Over the last 30 days, he’s only struck out 25% of batters and has held his last 92 batters to a .035 ISO and wOBA of .202. Additionally, he’s earned 60.2% of ground balls in the previous month and has allowed just 17.5% of line drives and fly balls during the last 30 days.
Quintana won’t get a bunch of swinging strikes. However, he’s been good at locating. Walking just 6.5% of batters over the last month. His strikeout rate has also increased during the previous 30 days. Quintana has only struck out 18.8% of batters this season, but that number has really jumped over the last month.
He’ll battle a Brewers team that hasn’t been significantly good against lefties. The projected lineup has hit a .169 ISO and wOBA of .305, with more than 23% of strikeouts and 9.1% of walks. There are ultimately just three batters who have a wOBA better than .289 against lefties over the last month in the Brewers’ lineup.
That favors Quintana.
Are The Mets Much Better?
The quick answer is no. The Mets aren’t much better offensively. They’re facing Tobias Myers of the Brewers, who has struck out nearly 26% of batters over the last 30 days. Myers has also held his last 101 batters to a .105 ISO and wOBA .278 wOBA with only 4% of walks.
However, while his walks and strikeouts are low, Myers has still allowed 31% of line drives and 28.2% of fly balls. He’s allowing worse contact than Quintana is.
The Mets will strike out at a high rate. After all, this New York projected lineup has struck out 23.8% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. However, the lineup should also have five batters with an ISO of at least .157 against righties over the last month.
Even on the road, there’s a better chance that the Mets’ batters connect off a Myers mistake than the Brewers connecting on a Quintana mistake. Quintana will induce a lot of ground balls. That’s not what Myers is good at.
The Pick
The Mets and Brewers played a close-contested matchup yesterday, and the Brewers finally found success late in the game when lefty Sean Manaea wasn’t in.
New York must take advantage of the Brewers before Quintana comes out. Quintana should have a good outing against the Brewers, just like Manaea did. However, the Mets have to add insurance before the bullpen comes in.
Looking at all the stats, it seems likely the Mets can do that. Myers is giving up a lot of hard-hit line drive contact, and New York has a majority of hitters in the projected lineup who have hit a high ISO against righties over the last month.
Therefore, stick with the AI Model and back the Mets at +110. A Game 3 in the Wild Card series has been rare. Enjoy it and take the Mets at +110 in this closely contested matchup.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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