After playing their first two games on the road, Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will make their home debut this Thursday night, hosting the New England Patriots.

The Patriots were expected to be the worst team in the league but have exceeded expectations in the first two weeks. How will they fare against their division rival to kick off Week 3?

NFL Pick

• Patriots +6.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Thursday, September 19, 2024 – 08:15 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

New England Patriots

With the loss of Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick and a weakened roster, the New England Patriots came into the 2024 season with the lowest regular season win total on the board at the sportsbooks. However, the Patriots have exceeded expectations by defeating the Cincinnati Bengals in a big upset in Week 1, and following that up with a hard-fought battle against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.

Now the Patriots face the division rival New York Jets who they have had huge success against in their recent history. Former coach Bill Belichick always beat the Jets, can new coach Jerod Mayo continue that string of success against their division rival?

Many expected the Patriots’ defense to regress with the loss of coach Belichick, however, the defense has been strong and stout in the first two weeks. The team has been excellent against the run, forcing their opponents to take to the air in order to beat them. Coach Mayo played under Bill Belichick, and Belichick’s influence is seen and heard throughout the building still.

Although the Patriots drafted quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick, they are relying on veteran QB Jacoby Brissett right now while they give time for Maye to learn the system. Brissett has been serviceable so far, but he will need to play well if they are going to get a win against one of the best defenses in the league, the New York Jets.

New York Jets

The Jets were done no favors by the schedule makers with the way they started the season. First, they opened up against the strong San Francisco 49ers in San Francisco on a Monday night game to open their season. Then they had to travel to face a ferocious Tennessee defense in Week 2 coming off a short week. The Jets were thoroughly beaten by the Niners and then they were able to overcome the mistakes of the Tennessee Titans in order to grab a victory in Week 2. Now the Jets look forward to their first home game, but once again they will be on short rest.

The Jets were hoping the addition of Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be the key to turn them into Super Bowl contenders. So far, Rodgers has been an upgrade over their previously dismal quarterback play, however, he is showing signs of age and is not as mobile as he once was. Still, Aaron Rodgers has the ability to sit in the pocket and make the right read, and is an upgrade over what they were dealing with previously.

The Jets will still hang their hat on the defense as head coach Robert Saleh is known for his defensive prowess. The Jets have a balanced defense, although they have been hit with injuries early in the season. Still the Jets formidable defense should be able to keep the underwhelming Patriots offensive attack under wraps.

Key Matchups

1. Can the Jets Establish the Run?

The Jets have one of the best one-two punches at running back with RB Breece Hall and RB Braelon Allen. The Patriots have been stout against the run so far and this will be one of the key factors in this game.

The Patriots will load up to stop the run in this game, forcing Rodgers to beat them in the air. If the Jets are able to run the ball, it will open up the offense for Rodgers. If the Patriots are able to stop the run and make the Jets one-dimensional, they will achieve their goal and have a good chance to keep this game close.

2. Jacoby Brissett Against the Jets Secondary

The Patriots will need to be effective through the air if they’re able to keep this game close. The Jets have a stout run defense and I expect the Patriots will be forced to take to the air to move the ball. Brissett has been serviceable so far but he’s going to have to take his play up a notch if he’s going to want to compete in these tough road conditions.

Brissett has plenty of talented receivers, he’s going to need to get them the ball quickly and accurately. The Jets pass rush will be on him, so he’s going to need to make reads quickly and get the ball out of his hands to avoid sacks. If Brissett is able to complete quick-timing routes with precision, the Patriots have a great chance to keep this game close.

The Pick

The New York Jets are heavily favored in this game and rightfully so. The Jets came into the season with Super Bowl expectations and have more talent on both sides of the ball. However, the Patriots have exceeded expectations so far and are showing that they are better than we believed them to be to start the season. The defense has taken a step up and Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo has definitely put his players in a position to succeed.

The Patriots will continue to exceed expectations in this Thursday night battle. The Jets will probably get the win but the Patriots will keep it close and cover the spread.

NFL Pick: Patriots +6.5 (-110) at Bet365

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