Peach Bowl Playoff: A Big Ten Semifinal Rematch

1. Game Overview

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks will face the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers in a College Football Playoff semifinal matchup at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. This Big Ten rematch is scheduled for Friday, January 9, 2026, in Atlanta, Georgia. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. This game marks the sixth time in the playoff era that two teams will have a rematch within the same season.

2. Team Form and Analysis

Indiana Hoosiers

The undefeated, No. 1 ranked Indiana Hoosiers enter the CFP semifinal with a perfect 13-0 record under head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers have been one of the season’s most dominant teams, earning the top seed in the playoff. Their season includes a pivotal victory over Oregon in October, a result that provides a significant psychological edge and a blueprint for success.

Indiana is led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has been instrumental in their perfect run. He is one half of what is being described as an “elite QB battle” in this matchup. The Hoosiers have proven they are not a “one-year wonder” and have consistently performed at a high level, culminating in an undefeated season and a Big Ten conference title. Their challenge will be to defeat a talented Oregon squad for a second time, a notoriously difficult task in college football.

Oregon Ducks

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks, led by coach Dan Lanning, enter this semifinal with an 11-1 record and a clear motivation for revenge. Their path to the Peach Bowl included a 51-34 victory over No. 12 James Madison, where their offense scored touchdowns on its first five drives, and a dominant 23-0 shutout against No. 4 Texas Tech. These performances highlight a team capable of both offensive firepower and defensive prowess.

The offense is quarterbacked by Dante Moore, whose performance will be critical against Indiana’s stout defense. While the Ducks have demonstrated championship-level potential, they face a significant challenge in overcoming the team that handed them their only loss of the season. Coach Lanning and his staff will need to make key adjustments from their first meeting to change the outcome and advance to the National Championship.

3. Injury Report

Oregon’s roster has been affected by the NCAA transfer portal. Reports indicate that as many as 12 players are expected to depart the program, with a notable impact on the team’s secondary unit. The departure of several defensive backs could test the Ducks’ defensive depth. Facing the No. 1 team in the country, any lack of depth in the secondary could be a significant factor, particularly against an efficient passing attack led by Indiana’s quarterback, Fernando Mendoza. There is no significant injury information available for the Indiana Hoosiers.

4. ATS Trends

Based on the provided data, both teams have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, sharing identical records.

Oregon Ducks: The Ducks hold a 9-5-0 ATS record, for a cover percentage of 64.3%. They have exceeded the spread by an average of 5.9 points per game.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers also have a 9-5-0 ATS record, resulting in a 64.3% cover percentage. However, they have been exceptionally strong against betting lines, beating the spread by an average margin of 12.4 points per game.

While both teams cover the spread at the same rate, Indiana’s average ATS margin is more than double that of Oregon’s, indicating a strong trend of not just winning, but winning by a larger-than-expected margin.

5. Betting Odds Breakdown

Point Spread: The Indiana Hoosiers are favored by 3.5 points (-3.5). This means for a bet on Indiana to win, they must defeat Oregon by 4 or more points. The Oregon Ducks are the underdogs at +3.5, meaning a bet on them wins if they win the game outright or lose by 3 points or fewer.
Total (Over/Under): The game total is set at 46.5 points. Bettors can wager on whether the combined final score of both teams will be over or under this number.

6. Prediction

This CFP semifinal rematch presents a compelling clash of storylines: Indiana’s quest for a perfect season versus Oregon’s quest for revenge.

The path to victory for Indiana is clear: repeat what worked in their October victory. As the undefeated top seed, the Hoosiers have the confidence and a proven game plan. Their path to covering the -3.5 spread involves quarterback Fernando Mendoza exploiting an Oregon secondary that may be depleted by transfer portal departures. Indiana’s remarkable +12.4 average margin against the spread suggests they are consistently undervalued by the market and are capable of winning decisively.

For Oregon, the path to an upset victory lies in offensive execution and defensive adjustments. Coach Dan Lanning and his staff have had months to analyze their lone defeat, and QB Dante Moore must have a near-perfect game. The Ducks’ offense, which has shown explosive capability, must control the tempo and finish drives. A victory for Oregon would require them to neutralize the factors that led to their first loss and capitalize on the high-stakes pressure of the playoff stage.

Considering Indiana’s perfect 13-0 record, their previous win against this same Oregon team, and their exceptional performance against the spread all season, the analysis points toward the Hoosiers. The impact of Oregon’s roster losses in the secondary cannot be understated against a championship-caliber opponent.

Prediction: Indiana 27, Oregon 20.

Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.

Sources:
University of Oregon Athletics Football History vs Indiana University
Indiana vs. Oregon football series history – Winsipedia
2025 Football Schedule – Indiana University Athletics
Curt Cignetti – Wikipedia
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