*Editor’s Note: The Silva de Andrade-Castaneda bout has been canceled due to medical reasons
The UFC is back in Sin City this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an Apex-based fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (-140)
- John Castaneda by Decision (-130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto
UFC Vegas 103 Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 01, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Austen Lane
Before arriving at the UFC, Austen Lane, as a former defensive lineman in the NFL, held promise as an athlete and had flattened 90% (10) of his opponents with vicious power on display. Upon his arrival to the big leagues, however, his flaws were exposed, he went 0-3, and suffered two brutal KO losses that exposed his true colors.
- Lane Pro Record: 13-5
- Lane KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Lane Submission Wins: 1
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto makes his UFC debut as the biggest betting favorite on the fight card. That’s concerning for some, but given the level of opposition, I have no worries that heavy-hitting Portuguese can resume his winning ways in style.
- Pinto Pro Record: 9-0
- Pinto KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Pinto Submission Wins: 1
Lane vs. Pinto: Fight Tape Analysis
He broke the losing streak and dominated a knockout artist in Robelis Despaigne last time out. So, why the hate on Lane? Well, it’s simple… Lane made it through the first round against Despaigne and capitalized on his opponent’s lackluster cardio. He landed his strikes meticulously, and found a takedown in each round.
However, Despiange is arguably the worst wrestler/grappler the UFC heavyweight division has ever seen. He left the company to return to striking-based combat sports, and Lane, unfortunately for him, won’t have a one-dimensional opponent to take advantage of this weekend.
Don’t get me wrong, Pinto is no Khabib in the wrestling department but from his regional scene tape, we can see him getting taken down and easily managing to return to the feet. Given that Lane hasn’t displayed any extraordinary top game, I believe Pinto, if required, can return to the feet from takedowns, and in a striking matchup, it’ll be his fight to lose.
In the striking realm, Lane can be defensively sound, but he cannot help himself from getting into a firefight. This will be his downfall, and as he won’t have a fighter presenting cardio or severe wrestling defense concerns in front of him, it won’t be long before a reckless exchange on the feet will see him get caught once again.
UFC Vegas 103 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Pinto has won six of his nine pro-MMA bouts inside the distance (5 KOs), and the UFC odds make Ulberg the favorite. More importantly, all five of Lane’s career defeats resulted in a knockout. The former football player should be concerned with CTE issues at this point, as his chin is an apparent issue that will cost him another knockout loss on Saturday.
Pinto by KO/TKO: Supporting UFC Vegas 103 Facts
- 100% (5) of Lane’s career losses were by KO/TKO
- Pinto has won 5 of his 9 pro-MMA bouts by KO/TKO
- Pinto is undefeated (9-0)
UFC Pick: Pinto by KO/TKO (-140) [1.4u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castaneda
UFC Vegas 103 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 01, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Douglas Silva de Andrade
He’s a ten-year UFC veteran with 20 knockout wins and a resume that most bantamweights could only dream of. Sadly, at the age of 40, it’s been apparent that the vicious Douglas Silva de Andrade of old has been fighting farther time for a while.
Andrade has just one knockout win in the last seven years, and while he’s defeated some low-level competition and some that have since been cut from the promotion, competing at 135 lbs into his forties isn’t going to be viable for much longer.
- Silva de Andrade Pro Record: 29-6
- Silva de Andrade KO/TKO Wins: 20
- Silva de Andrade Submission Wins: 2
John Castaneda
Arguably, John Castaneda could be critiqued as one of those low-level opponents Andrade has easily defeated in the past. However, he’s 2-1 in his last three fights and one of his recent successes was a stoppage win over Miles Johns, who’s also a former opponent of Andrade, who the forty-year-old couldn’t keep up with because cardio is a must in this sport.
- Castaneda Pro Record: 21-7
- Castaneda KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Castaneda Submission Wins:7
Andrade vs. Castaneda: Fight Tape Analysis
Castaneda’s experience and power might not match up to Andrade’s on paper, but his recent win over Muin Gafurov has aged very well, while the Johns dub was clearly something Andrade couldn’t achieve.
Of course, MMA math isn’t the answer, but I do believe Castaneda is primed to expose Andrade in his old age. His skill set continues to evolve, he’s well-rounded in all areas, and most importantly, he has cardio that will give him an edge in the second and third round.
UFC Vegas 103 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Castaneda a heavy favorite for this weekend’s card, so we’re forced to look elsewhere. I believe the decision prop is a great price as well as a trustworthy prediction.
While Andrade is likely going to struggle to keep up with Castaneda’s pace over three rounds, he’s still athletic for his age, and although cardio is a concern, durability isn’t.
UFC Pick: Castaneda by Decision (-130) [1.3u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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