It was an incredible slate of games in college basketball yesterday. Today won’t top it, but there are still some fun matchups with plenty of value. I looked to the AI Model for its assistance in determining which bets to make in college basketball today. Here’s what the model came up with.
Picks Summary
- Oregon -2 (-110)
- Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 (-110)
- UAB-Florida Atlantic Under 162.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center
The AI Model predicts Oregon will add a 79-76 win over Penn State on the road tonight. You can find Oregon at -2 via Caesars, which is easily the best play in this game.
Three-Point Shooting Could Be The Difference
The Oregon Ducks have nailed nearly 35% from downtown. Although Penn State has limited teams to 32.4% from downtown, Oregon likely has a solid day from three. Oregon is one of the more consistent offenses in college basketball and tank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The offense should also grab a solid amount of offensive rebounds. After all, Penn State has allowed opponents to grab nearly 30% of offensive rebounds per game this year.
However, the most major stat is Penn State’s three-point shooting. The Nittany Lions have hit only 33.3% from downtown, and Oregon has limited teams to 31.7% from three.
This game has a spread of two. Every bucket matters. Ultimately, Oregon has shot better from three and has defended the three slightly better.
Plus, Penn State hasn’t attempted many threes per game this year.
Oregon Must Limit Turnovers
Penn State will beat many teams using a high turnover percentage. The Nittany Lions have added 22.9% of turnovers, which ranks 10th in college basketball.
However, Oregon has limited turnovers to 16.2% and allowed 8.8% of steals per game this year. If the Ducks are careful with the ball, they’ll limit turnovers and hold on to beat Penn State.
I’ll take my chances with Oregon at -2.
NCAAB Pick: Oregon -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at Jack Stephens Center
The AI Model predicts Arkansas-Little Rock will win 71-64 over Southern Indiana tonight. Neither team has been elite in the Ohio Valley Conference, but a win for Arkansas-Little Rock would certainly improve the Trojans’ position.
Can Arkansas-Little Rock Finally Find Success Offensively?
The Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans have been a complete disaster offensively this season. The Trojans have shot 44.8% from inside the arc. They’ve also turned the ball over nearly 22% of the time.
That said, Southern Indiana has given up 35.1% from deep and 51.2% from inside the arc. The Screaming Eagles also foul at a high rate, allowing 31.8% of offensive rebounds.
Don’t be surprised if the Trojans get to the foul line more and add more offensive rebounds in this game.
At Least The Trojans Can Defend
While Southern Indiana has been awful on defense this year, Arkansas-Little Rock prides itself on the other end of the floor.
The Trojans have limited teams to 28% from three and 47.1% from inside the arc. Ultimately, Southern Indiana takes many two-point shots but has also hit below 47% from two-point range this season. That’s not going to help down the line.
The AI Model and I are confident in Arkansas-Little Rock against the spread.
NCAAB Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
UAB Blazers vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 05:00 PM ET at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena
The AI Model predicts that UAB and Florida Atlanta will score just 161 points. Meanwhile, you can find the total for this game at 162.5 at Caesars.
How To Beat FAU
The best way to get the best of Florida Atlantic is by shooting the three-ball. Florida Atlanta has allowed opponents to hit over 39% from downtown throughout the season.
The issue is that the UAB Blazers have scored only 25% of their points from three this season and have shot just 33.2% from downtown.
UAB isn’t much of a threat from downtown. If they can’t be consistent from three and take a bunch of looks from downtown, it’s hard to imagine the offense going off on the road.
Florida Atlantic Struggles On The Offensive Glass
The Florida Atlanta Owls have shot slightly better from the field. However, they have gained only 27% of offensive rebounds.
UAB typically defends well inside and will force some tough shots. Ultimately, Florida Atlantic will have a hard time earning second chances.
Although both teams play at a fast pace, the Under looks juicy.
NCAAB Pick: Under 162.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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