Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s playoff game between the Vikings and Rams. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Rams.
NFL Pick
- Rams ML (+105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, January 13, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Sam Darnold Under Pressure
Historically, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is known for struggling under pressure.
It is no coincidence that, in his team’s 31-9 loss in Detroit, Darnold had one of his worst games of the season while he encountered a great amount of pressure from the opposing defense. In that game, Darnold failed to complete half his passes, to reach 170 passing yards and to throw a touchdown pass.
As he has looked more like his usual self following his blazing start to the season, Darnold is exhibiting more strongly exploitable vulnerabilities. The Lions have shown that the key to stopping Darnold and Minnesota’s offense is to keep Darnold under pressure.
Darnold is not a mobile quarterback. He is a pocket passer who will struggle to elude pressure.
Los Angeles’ Pressure Creators
For the Rams, Jared Verse and Braden Fiske have proven to be terrific rookie additions to their pass-rushing crew. Both have ranked among rookie leaders in both pressures and sacks.
Moreover, the 15 combined sacks of fellow front seven members Kobie Turner and Byron Young help solidify Los Angeles’ pass rush.
Rams Against Pocket Passers
Los Angeles’ defense has allowed a few very high-scoring totals, which seem worrisome to skeptical betters. However, those skeptics must be silenced when they realize that the Rams conceded those high scoring totals to offenses led by good, mobile quarterbacks:
- Kyler-Murray led Arizona in Week 2
- Jalen Hurts-led Philadelphia in Week 12
- Josh Allen-led Buffalo in Week 14.
All three led their respective teams to 37 or more points against the Rams.
Against pocket passers, their pressure is able to be more effective, which consistently leads to lower scoring totals. Before their backup-led effort in Week 18 against Seattle, they held the 49ers, Jets and Cardinals to six, nine and nine points, respectively. The 49ers and Jets are led by pocket passers.
In those games, the 49ers suffered their lowest scoring total of the season, Arizona its second-lowest scoring total, and the Jets’ offense was sizzling until they played the Rams.
Los Angeles’ Improved Run Defense
The Rams are consistently allowing fewer points also because their run defense has improved greatly. Tackle-machine Christian Rozeboom is one Rams defender who is making a significant difference.
They are, therefore, holding opposing rush attacks to a lower rushing average in rematches and limiting opposing running backs to below-average performances, such as when they held Breece Hall of the Jets to 3.7 YPC, although Hall averages 4.2 YPC on the season.
Outlook for Matt Stafford
The Rams have a stacked pass attack led by Matthew Stafford and former All-Pro selections Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Stafford is primed to thrive against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense. The Vikings blitz more than anybody, and Stafford has a great track record against the blitz. Historical statistics defend my point, but we can also simply look at this season.
Compared to quarterbacks this year, he ranks eighth with a 103.2 passer rating when blitzed. Against the blitz, he has thrown eight touchdowns to two interceptions and boasts a 66.5 percent completion rate. Hence, Stafford’s passer rating against blitz-heavy Minnesota in Week 8 was over 50 points higher than Murray’s passer rating against the Vikings because Murray struggles against the blitz.
When facing the Vikings, a quarterback’s ability to handle the blitz is decisive. Stafford’s ability to handle the blitz, aided as it is by having Rob Havenstein instead of the incompetent Joe Noteboom at right tackle and by having great pass-catchers available to him who quickly gain separation and get open, explains why he reliably thrives against Minnesota’s defense.
Support from Kyren Williams
When the Rams beat Minnesota 30-20 in Week 8, their rush attack was not efficient. But their ground game will be better off in the rematch because Minnesota’s run defense has declined in the later stages of its season.
The Vikings have, in their last three games, allowed 20 more rushing yards per game than they allow per game in the season as a whole. Since the start of December, Atlanta, Arizona, and Detroit all blew past 150 rushing yards against them.
While those teams feature strong ground games, so does Los Angeles. Kyren Williams is the NFL’s seventh-leading rusher with 1,299 rushing yards. He is also tied for fifth with 14 rushing touchdowns. Among other things, he is great at running through tackles.
When Stafford has his star wide receivers healthy, the Rams are 6-0 in games in which Williams rushes for over 80 yards. With Williams posing a threat on the ground, Stafford is able to be even more effective.
Takeaway
Minnesota will struggle on offense because Los Angeles’ pressure will bother Darnold while the Rams’ improved run defense will limit the Vikings’ ground game.
On the other side, Stafford with his star wide receivers has a great outlook against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense. They’ll be even more effective in this rematch because they’ll get more support from their strong ground game.
NFL Pick: Rams ML (+105) at Bet365
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