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The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Monday night’s game between the Falcons and Raiders. Let’s take a look!
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, December 16, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Quarterback Situation
One reason why I believe that the posted total for this game is much too high is Las Vegas’ dire quarterback situation.
Entering this season, the Raiders already had one of the worst starting quarterbacks in Gardner Minshew, who has proven to be a backup-caliber quarterback since he was benched in Jacksonville, which was the first of the four teams that he’s played with now in the six years of his NFL existence. On the season, Minshew has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
Minshew’s backup is Aidan O’Connell, a former fourth-round selection in his second NFL season. O’Connell is listed as ‘questionable’ for Monday’s game with a knee injury that he sustained last Sunday.
If O’Connell cannot play, then Desmond Ridder would start.
O’Connell Is Normally Awful
O’Connell has put together two strong performances this season. Critically, the two teams that he played well against rank in the bottom two against tight ends, as measured by the receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns that they conceded to tight ends.
Tight ends are well-known to represent a safety blanket for quarterbacks who struggle with accuracy. Tight ends are relatively big and long, so quarterbacks don’t need to be so accurate in order to get the ball to them.
Good Performances
Those two teams that O’Connell played well against by being able to rely on tight end Brock Bowers were Carolina and Kansas City.
Both of those teams rank over ten spots below Atlanta against tight ends. They do not compare. That is, they form a separate category, to which Atlanta does not belong, of teams that struggle to contain opposing tight ends.
Otherwise, O’Connell is normally awful. His passer rating was below 80 in his four other appearances. When he can’t rely on his tight end group, he struggled against even the worst defenses.
For example, he most recently competed against Tampa Bay’s 30th-ranked passing defense. Despite facing such a soft opponent, he was 11-for-19 for 104 yards and one interception. His passer rating was an abysmal 51.2
What This Means For The Total
In every game in which O’Connell appeared, except for the two exceptions against the Panthers and Chiefs, his Raiders failed to exceed 18 points. The “over” is not going to stand a chance in this game because Las Vegas will fail to reach 20 points.
This failure will be even more drastic if O’Connell’s backup, Desmond Ridder, plays. Ridder, a former practice squad member who would start purely out of Las Vegas’ desperation for a quarterback, is even worse than O’Connell.
Video footage shows Ridder’s lack of arm talent, his lack of instinct, his inability to read defenses, and his other deficiencies. His career passer rating is 84.2, and he would be very easy for any defense to contain.
Kirk Cousins Is Struggling
The “under” will hit for this game also because Atlanta is regularly struggling to score points as a result of the struggles of its quarterback.
In their last four games, the Falcons have scored 17 points against the Saints, six points against the Broncos, 13 points against the Chargers, and 21 points against the Vikings, with the last scoring total feeling unusually high because the game overall had a very high-scoring type of game script — Minnesota put up 42 points — and because Atlanta’s rush attack performed unusually well.
Kirk Cousins struggled in all four of those games, his passer rating being no higher than 75.1 in any one of them. Cousins often needs his first read to be open because he can’t make defenders miss in the pocket. When he does have more time in the pocket, he struggles to make throws downfield.
The low velocity of his passes and the slowness with which he gets the ball out of his hands make it easier for defenders to read and react to his passes.
For these reasons, he enters this game having thrown zero touchdowns and eight interceptions in his last four games. He has struggled even against the Saints’ 28th-ranked pass defense.
The Takeaway
20 or 21 points is the absolute maximum point total that either team could possibly reach. It would take something strange like a pick-six or a 70-yard rushing touchdown for either team to reach such a high total. And yet the over/under sits at 44 or 44.5. I would also still play the “under” if the total were to drop a few points.
Both teams will feature terrible quarterback play. Both quarterbacks have struggled consistently. Their struggles have continued even against terrible defenses and even against defenses that rank lower than that of their upcoming Monday night opponent.
As one would expect, their struggles are resulting in low-scoring totals.
Thankfully for NFL fans, there will be two Monday Night Football games this week (with the other being Bears-Vikings). The affair between the Falcons and Raiders will be an ugly one to watch.
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at Bet365
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