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The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Monday night’s game between the Ravens and Chargers.
Join us for expert analysis as we look for the right side to pick!
NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, November 25, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Baltimore’s Spot
It’s called gambling because when you bet on a team to do well it can make mistakes.
I like Baltimore on Monday because it is coming off “one of those games.” It just had a game where Derrick Henry, who nearly never fumbles, fumbled. It was a game where Justin Tucker, who is known as one of the best field goal kickers, missed two kicks from fewer than 50 yards. Zay Flowers, moreover, is Baltimore’s leading pass-catcher by a solid margin, but he dropped a ball on a play that he regularly makes.
Bettors are biased toward the Chargers because they just saw another good defense, Pittsburgh’s, appear to stifle the Ravens’ offense.
But my point is that the Ravens had an off day that every great team has once in a while and, having got those errors out of the way, will play a clean game and look like their usual awesome selves on Monday.
Baltimore’s is still, without a doubt, one of the two best offenses. The Ravens and Lions are the only two teams to average over 30 points per game. The Ravens are also the only team to average over 400 yards per game — they average 430.1.
Monday night presents a great bounce-back opportunity for Baltimore also because quarterback, and perennial MVP candidate, Lamar Jackson loves the spotlight. Jackson is 11-1 in his last twelve primetime games, with the one loss coming to the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
With the spread being so close to pk, which means that the team that covers the spread will most likely also win, Jackson’s tendency to win on primetime is highly meaningful.
Can Baltimore’s Offense Handle Great Defenses?
Let’s not forget what the Ravens did to other elite defenses of teams outside their division — whereas the Steelers are rivals in their division who are familiar with them from playing them annually twice a year.
Baltimore put up 452 yards against the Chiefs and were half a toe away from scoring 26 points and then attempting a two-point conversion. Moreover, the Ravens dropped 41 points against Denver.
In addition to being able to roll out and make plays through the air or as a runner, Jackson has become an excellent pocket passer. Throwing 25 touchdowns to three interceptions, he owns the second-best quarterback rating.
Elite defenses, except Pittsburgh’s every year, struggle to contain Lamar because he can beat them in so many different ways.
Does Los Angeles’ Defense Present Unique Difficulties?
Of course, though, not all top-level defenses are the same. Maybe the Chargers present matchup-specific difficulties that the Broncos and Chiefs did not pose to Baltimore?
Actually, the Chargers’ defense is especially a unit that Baltimore can dominate. This is because the Ravens have the most mobile quarterback in the game in Lamar Jackson, who is always a threat to run for over 100 yards in a given game.
The Chargers struggle against mobile quarterbacks, as evident when they made Denver rookie quarterback Bo Nix look very slippery as he led his team to a 16-point output.
Denver scored all of those 16 points in the second half when Nix was finally allowed to let loose. Overall, Nix rushed for 61 yards on a season-high 10.2 YPC.
The Chargers have not only struggled to contain Nix. In fact, all of their losses came to teams with mobile quarterbacks:
- They lost 20-10 to the Steelers who were led by now-backup quarterback Justin Fields
- They lost 17-10 to the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs
- They also lost 17-15 to the Cardinals whose quarterback, Kyler Murray, ran for 64 yards and a touchdown
J.K. Dobbins
On offense, the Chargers want to establish a strong running game to make up for the deficiencies in their pass-attack — they lack effective tight ends and wide receivers who can help quarterback Justin Herbert sustain drives and make big plays.
When starting running back J.K. Dobbins thrives for the Chargers, then they are able to sustain drives throughout a given game and to present a balanced offensive attack that gives their pieces in the passing game greater potential to succeed.
Conversely, the Chargers are 0-3 when Dobbins averages fewer than three YPC in a given game.
I like the Ravens because they pose the toughest challenge that the Chargers’ ground game will have encountered this year. Baltimore ranks number one in allowing 3.4 YPC per game. The Ravens are also one of two teams to allow fewer than 78 rushing yards per game.
Baltimore’s Pass Defense
Still, Chargers backers will want to rely on quarterback Justin Herbert, who has been passing the ball more for the Chargers since they returned from their bye week.
But wide receiver is still a significant weak area on the Chargers’ offense. Their top pass-catcher is their second-round selection from this year’s draft, and there is little of proven worth after him. For good reason, it is commonly said that they have one of the worst pass-catching units in the NFL.
Baltimore’s pass defense matches up well against teams with weak pass-catching units. On Sunday Night Football, for example, the Ravens decimated a Buffalo team that had this very problem — weak pass-catching talent — that the Bills would later address by trading for Amari Cooper.
As they did to the Bills, the Ravens also held the Broncos to ten points. Denver’s top wide receiver is Courtland Sutton — who was the team’s number two wide receiver to now departed teammate Jerry Jeudy — making Denver’s pass-catching group likewise one of the NFL’s worst.
Baltimore’s pass defense has such gross statistics because it struggles so severely against great wide receivers, such as Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase. But the Ravens’ defense will contain a weak pass-catching group.
The Ravens are led in their secondary by cornerback Marlon Humphrey, a three-time Pro Bowler who continues to thrive at preventing opposing wide receivers from gaining separation, which is what Ladd McConkey, L.A.’s undersized top wide receiver, will rely on having.
Takeaway
Baltimore’s elite offense will take advantage of the Chargers’ vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks.
Expect Lamar to gain a lot of rushing yards but also to take advantage of his numerous weapons by staying inside the pocket or rolling out.
The Chargers’ offense is doomed against Baltimore’s elite rush defense, while the Ravens’ pass defense additionally owns an excellent outlook against the Chargers’ weak group of pass-catchers.
NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-105) at Bet365
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