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Tennessee and Georgia are two top-ten teams for good reason. This is a nationally televised game that you’ll want to watch, and the top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for it.
This game clearly reads like a low-scoring battle. For your best bets, you’ll want to play the “under.”
NCAAF Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Sanford Stadium
Tennessee’s Big-Game Defense
When people think of players needing to perform in big games, they tend to think of quarterbacks. But defenders need to be able to rise to the occasion, as well.
Tennessee’s defense is well-built for big games. The Volunteers have faced three ranked opponents. They held NC State to ten points, Oklahoma to 15 points, and Alabama to 17 points. Given the firepower that permeates Alabama’s offense, holding the Crimson Tide to 17 points is deeply impressive.
Georgia’s offense will not pose as difficult a challenge to Tennessee’s defense as Alabama.
Georgia’s Offensive Line
The Bulldogs’ offense is held back by its offensive line, which has declined in quality relative to recent years. Partly due to injuries, this unit is performing poorly against strong front sevens.
Last week, Georgia mustered all of ten points partly because Ole Miss’ front seven forced it to abandon its vertical pass attack.
The Rebels sacked Georgia five times, compelling the Bulldogs to resort to getting rid of the ball quickly — by throwing more screens, for example — which made it simpler for Ole Miss’ already successful defense to further limit Georgia’s ability to score.
Tennessee’s Front Seven
Heading into the season, specifically Tennessee’s defense line was assessed to be one of the nation’s best. And the Volunteers have not disappointed. They rank 12th in run defense and 20th in sack rate.
They will, similar to Ole Miss, place Georgia quarterback Carson Beck under constant pressure.
Look out, among several others — because this is a very deep group — for James Pearce Jr., who leads Tennessee with 5.5 sacks.
Carson Beck’s Decline
Beck is already someone who struggles to make good decisions, and Tennessee’s vicious pass pressure will only intensify his struggles.
Beck has thrown twelve interceptions, the most in the nation. Relative to last year, he has also declined markedly in completion rate. He is radically less efficient and productive.
To be fair, the fault is not all his. He can’t help it when his pass-catchers run the wrong route, for example. He especially misses star tight end Brock Bowers, who is thriving in the NFL now. Georgia lacks pass-catchers who can help Beck out.
Against Tennessee’s run defense, Georgia’s already inefficient rush attack — the Bulldogs rank 104th in rush offense — will likewise fail to help Beck.
Considering everything, Georgia will struggle to achieve the ten points that it did last week.
Young Kid on the Road
Tennessee backers will indicate Nico Iamaleava‘s competence and general evidence of progression. I do think that he will be competent enough to help Tennessee cover the spread, but the Volunteers also won’t need to score much in order to cover the spread.
Their offense is not the same on the road as at home. Location is important in football, especially when the road venue is sufficiently noisy, because a road crowd can really disrupt an offense’s ability to communicate and a quarterback’s ability to remain composed.
An offense that struggles to communicate won’t be able to run what it wants to. Its quarterback, lacking composure, will underperform. In every road game so far, Tennessee has struggled largely due to the setbacks experienced by its freshman quarterback.
Iamaleava-led Tennessee, for example, scored all of 14 points in Arkansas. This low scoring total is remarkable given the fact that Ole Miss, two weeks ago, scored 63 points in Arkansas. The Razorbacks have a really bad secondary. In Tennessee’s other road game, it scored 25 points in Oklahoma.
Almost a third of Iamaleava’s yards in that game came on one play, indicating that he consistently struggled to sustain drives. In Saturday’s game, a few big touchdown plays can happen, and the “under” still wouldn’t be in danger.
Georgia’s Run Defense
Iamaleava will be desperate for help from his high-caliber running back. But Georgia has a stout defense against the run. Its run defense ranks 19th at limiting YPC.
The Bulldogs, for example, have held Texas’ starting running back to 3.5 YPC, Florida to three YPC two weeks ago, and, last week, Ole Miss to 3.7 YPC.
Ole Miss averaged as many as 3.7 YPC — although this is still a low average — because its quarterback is a good runner and Georgia has struggled to deal with mobile quarterbacks.
Iamaleava is not a dangerous runner, though. He is rather disinclined to keep the ball and run and is unlikely to achieve more than a twelve-yard run in a given game. His upper-body injury, which has his status in question for this game — although his head coach has stated that he expects him to play — will likely dissuade him further from running.
Takeaway
Tennessee’s vicious front seven and the atmosphere will be decisive in this game.
Georgia’s offense will struggle due to Tennessee’s pass pressure and the latter’s strong run defense, while another vibrant road atmosphere and the lack of support that he can receive from his rush attack will cause Iamaleava to struggle.
NCAAF Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at Bet365
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