The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon for a spectacular PPV event at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, and we’re being gifted with an absolute banger of a fight card!
Kayla Harrison, Ketlen Vieira, Jose Aldo, and Mario Bautista are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 307 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Harrison vs. Vieira Fight Goes the Distance (-125)
- Aldo by Decision (+180) at Bet365
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 307 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET
- Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout)
Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
UFC 307 Women’s Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Kayla Harrison
Former two-time Olympic gold medallist in judo and two-time Professional Fighters League (PFL) tournament winner Kayla Harrison makes her second UFC appearance after dominating Holly Holm in her promotional debut earlier this year. With a -1200 moneyline price and all the hype at bantamweight, there probably isn’t much I can tell you that you aren’t already aware of.
Harrison, with a mauling grappling offensive, has dominated all but one of her 17 pro-MMA opponents to date, and the way she dispatched Holm last time was out all the evidence we needed to see that she belongs here. Nobody, and I mean nobody, has treated Holm like she didn’t belong in the octagon, but Harrison did, so it’s not surprising that she’s the biggest betting favorite at UFC 307.
- Harrison Pro MMA Record: 17-1
- Harrison KOs: 6
- Harrison Submissions: 7
Ketlen Vieira
While Ketlen Vieira’s chance of victory is a foregone conclusion for most, we cannot completely discredit the Brazilian as a walk-through opponent for the growing superstar that is Harrison. With 11 bouts and eight years of experience on her resume, Vieira has the veteran-savvy to cause problems for her opponents rise, and we shouldn’t be surprised if she makes this fight look a lot closer than the line suggests.
- Vieira Pro MMA Record: 14-3
- Vieira KOs: 2
- Vieira Submissions: 4
Harrison vs. Vieira: Fight Tape Analysis
We know the majority of the women’s bantamweight division fear Kayla Harrison, and it’s not strictly because of her elite background in judo and smothering top control. She’s a physical specimen and formerly competed at 155 lbs for PFL. The fact she’s making the weight cut for 135lbs is impressive, but as she bulks back to her walk-around weight post-weigh-ins, a healthy Harrison in full physical shape will be almost impossible for most 35ers to deal with.
We know the game plan: ground Vieira ASAP and stick to her roots. However, with the best takedown defense (93%) in the UFC women’s bantamweight division and a BJJ black belt, Vieira presents an intriguing skill set that might be good enough to keep this fight standing or at least clear of a knockout or submission stoppage.
UFC 307 Main Card Odds & Prediction
I won’t argue against the -1200 moneyline; this high-probability outcome exists for a reason. We have an elite athlete and former Olympian going against a more proficient striker who is grappling in her back pocket and the former, should she find herself in top control, will dominate every round.
That said, we’re looking for value, and the UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks aren’t worth our time on the moneyline, whereas the total going over does present itself as a viable option.
KO/TKO has never finished Vieira on the ground, and her black belt will be higher than the level Harrison is used to submitting. We’ve watched Harrison fail to find a finish in multiple fights, including her final PFL bout with former UFC competitor Aspen Ladd, and honestly, Vieira could be the most physically strong and durable opponent she’s fought to date.
Harrison wins, but she doesn’t finish the fight as effortlessly as last time. Therefore, backing this contest to go the distance at -125 is one of the rare pieces of value available from this fight.
UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
UFC 307 Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Jose Aldo
‘The King of Rio’ returns… Damn, it feels good to say that, especially after the former featherweight champ and UFC legend retired from the sport in 2022 after losing a close decision to the current bantamweight titleholder Merab Dvalsihvili.
Fortunately, following a minor and successful stint boxing (3-0-1), Aldo got the itch, and earlier this year, he returned to the UFC and crushed the six-fight win streak of an up-and-coming contender in Jonathan Martinez. With another up-and-comer lined up for Saturday, can Aldo crush another six-fight win streak that his opponent is riding?
- Aldo Pro MMA Record: 32-8-0
- Aldo KOs: 16
- Aldo Submissions: 2
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista, with six consecutive wins, including three submissions, since February 2022, might not be the main event of UFC 307, but with a legend like Jose Aldo as his opponent, he’ll sure as hell feel like he is.
The 31-year-old MMA Lab has ground through the bantamweight rankings since his debut in 2019. Finally, following five years of graft, he’s receiving a big-name fight and the opportunity to place himself as a potential title contender of the future.
- Bautista Pro MMA Record: 14-2
- Bautista KOs: 3
- Bautista Submissions: 6
Aldo vs. Bautista: Fight Tape Analysis
Straight off the bat, I’ll be completely honest… Bautista feels like a step down in competition compared to Aldo’s last opponent, Martinez. Yes, both fighters were/are riding six-fight win streaks, but the resume and level of opposition for Martinez were much more impressive. In contrast, the best win of Bautista’s career was a decision victory over a declining Ricky Simon.
Looking at Jose Aldo with plus money feels like a gift, especially when considering Bautista’s best path to victory… grappling/wrestling. We know Bautista’s career victories have predominantly involved grappling, and he’ll attempt to take Aldo down, but here’s the kicker… If one of the division’s best wrestlers and current champion, Dvalishvili, struggled to achieve this with 16 failed TD attempts, what can Bautista achieve that’s any different?
In a striking battle, it’s Bautista’s fight to lose, and ‘The King of Rio’ is renowned for having a solid takedown defense (91%). Sure, he’s 38 years old, but he hasn’t displayed signs of decline just yet, and the old dog still has the elite skills capable of overcoming less experienced and less threatening foes.
UFC 307 Main Card Odds & Prediction
It’s crazy to believe, but Aldo has actually evolved in the latter stages of his career, most notably in his striking defense. In three-round bantamweight bouts, nobody has finished Aldo, who fights behind a tight guard and his classic speedy boxing and precise leg kicks. He’s the A-side in the striking department at UFC 307, and once Bautista fails the takedowns, he won’t match the superiority of what Brazil’s finest has to offer.
The UFC odds place Aldo as the underdog. As crazy as it sounds for a man who has 16 knockouts during his decorated career, he’s more of a point fighter than a finisher now, so backing him to win on the scorecards at +180 is a prop wager I can get behind.
UFC Pick: Aldo by Decision (+180) [1 returns 1.8u profit] at Bet365
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