What appeared as an important ACC clash between N.C. State and Clemson has deteriorated into something less appetizing. Nonetheless, there is still a point spread attached, and outside of how Miami has played, the ACC looks wide open.
At top-rated sportsbooks, the point spread has taken dramatic leaps from early August. According to the NCAAF odds board, Clemson was a 7.5-point home favorite to begin. The Tigers jumped to -14.5 for the lookahead line last week and because of circumstances which we will explain shortly, coach Dabo Swinney’s squad is a chalky -20.5 points for this high noon affair in South Carolina.
NCAAF Pick
- Clemson -20.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
Things Are Not Getting Better for N.C. State
Coming off four seasons of winning at least eight games, N.C. State (2-1, 0-3 ATS) was poised for that kind of success to continue.
A sluggish 38-21 win over West Carolina as a 30-point home favorite was not ignored, but with a more important date with Tennessee, it was overlooked as looking ahead. What wasn’t expected, is the Wolfpack were pummeled by Tennessee 51-10, with the defense overrun for 460 yards.
Most fans in the Triangle area of Raleigh figured coach Dave Doeren’s squad would want to punish Louisiana Tech at home as 20-point favorites and instead N.C. State had to overcome a 17-6 halftime deficit to win by only 30-20.
In that contest quarterback Grayson McCall was injured. McCall was having a rough season, averaging 6.3 yards per completion, compared to his 9.67 YPC at Coastal Carolina over four years.
In steps backup CJ Bailey, who engineered three touchdown drives and another that led to a field goal. Coach Doeren announced Bailey will take over at quarterback until McCall is healthy, which mostly accounts for the point spread leaping 6.5 points this week.
Bye-Bye Confidence
Last year’s Wolfpack defense was Top 30 in total defense and points allowed. Though there were losses at linebacker and the secondary, the replacements were presumably in place. That’s not been the case, with N.C. State #83 in pass defense, allowing 246 YPG.
With Clemson off a bye week, this doesn’t seem like a good time to visit Death Valley.
What is the State of Clemson Football?
In the loss to Georgia, Clemson (1-1 SU/ATS) appeared what they have become: a team that will lose three or four games a year.
Coach Sweeney doesn’t believe in the transfer portal and prefers to recruit players and coach them up over three or four years and make them better players. Those good intentions are admirable if he was recruiting the same type of players he was four to seven years ago, many of whom were All-ACC types, sending a steady flow of both offensive and defensive players to the NFL.
Sweeney is not getting as many of those top individuals and it’s noticeable when watching them on the field. Wide receivers are not as open as Tee Higgins was in the Clemson orange. The offensive line has been just above average in the ACC for years and the quarterback position is weaker.
Where the speed differential is noticed is on defense. Sure, there are still talented players arriving in Clemson but if you look at the preseason magazines that have possible first, second, and honorable mention ACC defensive players this season, only two or three are listed, when for years ago it was at least a half dozen if not more.
Clemson rebounded in their second contest to ambush a good Appalachian State squad 66-20, yet, they rank #87 in total defense coming into this clash.
Who Is the Right Side for the Wolfpack vs. Tigers?
Usually a Midwestern thing, this rivalry has a nickname: the Textile Bowl. Since 1981, the name celebrates the contribution the textile industry has made economically for both states.
Clemson looks like the third-best team in the ACC behind Miami and Louisville, but with Power 4 conferences bloated, the Tigers avoid the Hurricanes and have the Cardinals at home.
QB Cade Klubnik needs to turn into the star Sweeney envisioned. That is not tearing up App. State but playing at a continually high level when the going is tougher. With N.C. State’s pass defense issues, Klubik has to deliver the pigskin on target.
RB Phil Mafah is a beast and if the offensive line can even create crevices, Mafah can blast through to not only move the chains but generate chunk plays.
The Pick
N.C. State is putting a lot on freshman Bailey who is 6’6 but a slight 190.
The offense isn’t really built for explosive plays, but moving the ball for long drives against Clemson is never easy. That’s why Bailey had to be a playmaker and the defense has to create turnovers.
With the total at 46.5, covering a point spread this large is no easy task. Nonetheless, one can see the Tigers unsettling the young Wolfpack QB into turnovers that could lead to quick points for Clemson. Add in N.C. State is 4-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49, with the drill down 1-8 ATS on the road and Clemson covers the big number.
NCAAF Pick: Clemson -20.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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