This matchup was originally set for 2020 at Lambeau Field before COVID-19 happened and changed everything. This confrontation has lost some luster without Nick Saban and Wisconsin taking a few steps backward in being a top Big Ten squad.

Nevertheless, it is a spectacle game where an elite team from the South invades the upper Midwest. Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a look at the NCAAF odds board and go a little further with our analysis of the match.

NCAAF Pick

• Alabama -16 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Camp Randall Stadium

The Crimson Tide Are Hefty Favorites, Is the Spread Too Large?

It will probably take a season or two to understand the ramifications of Nick Saban retiring to sit next to Pat McAfee on Saturday mornings. New head coach Kalen DeBoer has done his best to leave alone what Saban has established in Tuscaloosa while developing a team that fits his preference in style and execution.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe is like a faucet purchased at Lowe’s, he runs hot and cold game to game and sometimes quarter to quarter. Wisconsin’s defense has held two mediocre opponents to 13.5 points and 250 yards a game, but they are moving way up in class.

Milroe isn’t always the best thrower of the pigskin, but his legs can get him out of trouble. The Badgers defense under coach Luke Fickell should present issues for the Crimson Tide, especially with their offensive line going through a series of injuries.

Look for Alabama to establish Milroe in the short passing game to build his confidence, and if that is successful, the Tide hopes the O-Line is healthier and can take the Wisconsin crowd out of the game.

While we understand why Bama is this large of a road favorite (more on that in the next segment), this is a vast amount of points to give a fired-up home underdog who historically wins at a high percentage in Madison. Wisconsin has been a home dog twice since 2011 and is on a 4-0 ATS move in that role. This is a cause for consternation.

What Is Wrong with Wisconsin Offense?

Coach Fickell came to the Badger State from Cincinnati, where his teams were known for defense, running the ball, and in the later years with better quarterbacks, throwing the ball down the field.

Badger football came to its glory years with Barry Alvarez, who loved running the ball and overwhelming the opposition with All-Big Ten offensive linemen and a succession of NFL quality backs. This happened on his watch and the coaches he hired as the athletic director.

However, Fickell wanted a more modern offense and hired Phil Longo as his offensive coordinator to run an up-tempo offense. After 14 regular season games, it’s not working, lacking the right type of linemen, a group of receivers with various skills, and a quarterback that makes quick decisions and gets the ball out fast.

QB Tyler Van Dyke has put up 27.5 PPG and less than 400 YPG against Western Michigan and South Dakota. The Badgers offense gives the impression they are uncomfortable with almost every play call, having to think it through rather than executing it.

Is that going to work against an Alabama defense for long drives?

Who Is the Right Side for the Crimson Tide vs Badgers?

By the middle of the second quarter, we should have a good feel as to how this matchup will play out. With the Total hovering around 49, given the point spread, that’s roughly a 33-16 final.

If the Badgers can force Milroe into a turnover or two (he’s sometimes loose with the ball) that can keep Wisconsin in the contest, especially in the first half. It would seem the Badgers need to be within six points at halftime to have a chance to beat the spread.

If Whisky can do that, that suggests the defense is holding up, buoyed by a loud crowd, and doing enough on offense to keep Alabama’s offense off the field and scoring points.

If Bama is ahead by eight or more after 30 minutes, they have big play capabilities both in the pass and running game where they could take the Badgers’ will away when the fourth quarter commences.

If that turns out to be true, making Van Dyke a thrower on every down plays right into the hands of the Alabama defense. This writer’s inclination is to take the second scenario where the Tide physically and mentally wears down Bucky for the win and cover.

The Pick

For good measure consider this: Bet Against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wisconsin who average 330 to 390 YPG, against a team with an excellent defense that permits 280 or fewer YPG. Teams like the Badgers are 6-27 ATS in this situation, losing by 20.2 PPG.

NCAAF Pick: Alabama -16 (-110) at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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