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The 2024 NFL season kicks off when the Baltimore Ravens head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Conference Championship Game. In that game, the Kansas City Chiefs came out on top en route to winning the Super Bowl.
Can the Ravens bounce back, or will the Chiefs continue their dominance over their AFC rival? Let’s dive in and see what the NFL odds at the top sportsbooks have in store for us.
Picks Summary
- Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-105)
- Under 46 (-108)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, September 05, 2024 – 08:20 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to three-peat for the first time in NFL history. The Chiefs are the winners of the last two Super Bowls and have won 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls. During the time of the championships, their team has switched identities.
The year that the Chiefs won their first Super Bowl, they were a high-powered offense that sometimes lacked on the defensive end. After paying Patrick Mahomes a huge contract, they had to jettison speedster wide receiver Tyreek Hill and switch their identity to a more defensive-oriented team, led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnola and All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones.
During last year’s run, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was a big part of the Chief’s success. Sneed is the biggest departure from the Chiefs roster this offseason.
Although the Chiefs lost Sneed, they are leaning back into their high-powered offensive ways. They made numerous upgrades on the offensive end including adding speedy receivers Hollywood Brown and the fastest rookie ever at the NFL combine, Xavier Worthy.
These weapons, combined with the emergence of Rashee Rice as a dependable target for Mahomes put the Chiefs in line to return to their high-scoring ways. However, it will be a little bit before the team is complete on the field, as Hollywood Brown will miss this week’s game with an injury.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens had an excellent chance to make the Super Bowl last year but they fell short to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship game. That game was befuddling to Ravens fans, as the team seemingly lost its identity.
The Baltimore Ravens are known for hard-nosed, powerhouse football. Yet they abandoned the run in that game and took to the air with a pass on almost every play. This ended up being to their detriment as their one-dimensional offense was easy for the Chiefs to stop. Why the Ravens switched their identity in the biggest game of the year still remains a mystery to their legion of loyal fans.
The Ravens will lean into that run-first identity even more with the offseason addition of powerhouse running back Derrick Henry. Henry comes over from the Titans and is known as one of the hardest players to tackle in the NFL. Henry looks like a Mack truck barreling through the offensive line and it often takes multiple tacklers to bring down. With the addition of Henry, the Ravens will do what they should have done in last year’s championship game, pound the rock and use the run game to set up the pass.
The Ravens also lost one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, Mike Macdonald, who became the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. How will the Ravens defense fare under a new coaching staff?
Keys to the Game
1. Ravens Run Game
The Chiefs had a fairly good run defense last year, but with the Ravens’ new firepower in the backfield, will the Chiefs be able to stop Henry? If the Ravens are able to run the ball they will have a good chance of success.
2. Chiefs Passing Attack
The Chiefs are returning to their identity as an explosive offense with playmakers all over the field. Will the Chiefs be able to integrate new speedster Xavier Worthy in his first professional game?
After a quiet regular season last year, Travis Kelce exploded in the playoffs last season. Will Kelce continue to be his dominant self or will he take his foot off the gas again this regular season?
The Spread Bet
Although the Chiefs lost their home opener in a Thursday Night Football game to Detroit last year, they will get this year off to a better start.
The Chiefs are leaning back into their true identity, that of an offensive powerhouse. Andy Reid has always been excellent with extra time to prepare and in this case, he’s had the whole offseason.
Also, we can expect a little bit of regression from the Raven’s defense after losing one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. Although the Ravens will not commit the same mistake they made in last year’s championship game and will commit to the run, the Chiefs are simply too much and Patrick Mahomes is simply too good. Therefore, I am laying the three points with the Chiefs.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Total Bet
The Ravens recommitting to the running game will also lead this game to have fewer plays than usual. Expect the Ravens to overcompensate for their mistakes in last year’s game and really make a concerted effort to run the ball at every possible chance. This will keep the clock rolling and will most likely lead to an under.
Prime Time unders are usually a thing regardless, as the teams can get nervous and jittery and they are not in their normal time slots of playing football.
These two factors combined make the under an easy play for opening night success. Take the Chiefs to cover the spread in a low-scoring game.
NFL Pick: Under 46 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.