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Pretty much every successful NFL team starts with a good coach. Bill Belichick, for example, has won 6 Super Bowls as a head coach. Andy Reid has won 3 of the last 5.
Interestingly, Reid has earned NFL Coach of the Year honors only once – and none in the last 20 years. However, he has been named the best coach by The Sporting News on 3 occasions. The last 5 AP Coach of the Year winners are John Harbaugh, Kevin Stefanski, Mike Vrabel, Brian Daboll and Stefanski again.
This particular market is not easy to handicap. You never know how the voters are going to make their selections. Case in point: in our 2022 Coach of the Year predictions we had Nick Sirianni at +2000 and Reid at +4000. Sirianni took the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl and Reid won the Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs despite losing his top wide receiver from the previous season. Did either one of them earn COY honors? Nope… and Sirianni wasn’t even nominated!
Alas, here are the COY odds and my best bets for 2023 NFL Coach of the Year.
NFL Coach of the Year odds
Odds courtesy of Bet365 and available at time of publishing.
- Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers +850
- Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears +900
- Robert Saleh, New York Jets +1200
- Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers +1200
- Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons +1300
- Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans +1400
- Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts +1500
- Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals +1600
- Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers +1800
- Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders +1800
- Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks +1900
- Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings +2000
- Bill Callahan, Tennessee Titans +2000
- Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions +2000
- Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders +2000
- Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers +2000
NFL Coach of the Year best bet: Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans (+1400)
Prior to the 2023 campaign, the Texans’ 3 most recent seasons resulted in records of 4-12, 4-13 and 3-13-1. Even though Houston went 10-7 last year and expectations are high, overall this is a relatively moribund franchise. If its rise continues in year 2 under Ryans, he will get plenty of credit. The Texans owned 2 of the top 3 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft and hit a home run with quarterback C.J. Stroud while also landing an impact linebacker in Will Anderson. This team is in good shape on both sides of the ball – but especially on offense. Another AFC South title should be in the cards and Houston may end up being among the best teams in the conference if not even in the entire NFL.
NFL Coach of the Year longshot play: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
The Rams were not supposed to be any good last season. Nonetheless, McVay steered them back to the playoffs. They wrapped up the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to compile a 10-7 record and snag a wild card in the NFC. McVay earned the fifth-most votes for Coach of the Year. With expectations still relatively low in Los Angeles, he very well could win it in 2024 with another playoff berth. Puka Nacua should only be getting better and Matthew Stafford is showing no signs of slowing down, so the offense remains dangerous. Aaron Donald is gone, but L.A. drafted both Jared Verse and Braden Fiske out of Florida State to help shore up what projects to be a pretty good defense. Don’t be surprised if the Rams once again overachieve.