As usual, the Democratic Party has everything to lose when it comes to the 2024 U.S. presidential debate on September 10. Kamala Harris is expected to outperform Donald Trump on ABC – just as Joe Biden was expected to defeat Trump in their CNN debate on June 27. All Biden had to do was repeat his winning performance at both 2020 debates versus Trump.

We all saw how that turned out. CNN declared Trump the winner, and the Republican Party seized control of the 2024 election odds while Biden did his best at damage control. It wasn’t enough; with the Dems sinking in the polls, Biden stepped aside and Harris took over.

In this particular case, the Democrats have clearly benefitted from losing that CNN debate. Harris is now slightly ahead of Trump in the polls, and either ahead or tied at most online sportsbooks and prediction markets. But if she stumbles on September 10, there’s nowhere left for the Dems to turn.

Will Harris stumble? Let’s check in with the latest scuttlebutt on the ABC debate and see what effects it may have downstream on the politics betting market.

Will Trump Debate Harris?

Almost certainly. There’s been chatter from both sides about the rules for this debate; true to form, Trump has threatened multiple times to pull out, hoping to gain concessions – like having the debate moved from ABC to Fox News, or allowing his microphone to remain on at all times during the broadcast.

Harris and the Democrats have yet to budge – at least on these fronts. As we go to press, it’s all systems go for September 10 (9:00 PM ET) at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, home of the U.S. Constitution and the Liberty Bell. If you’re in the States or otherwise have access, you can watch on ABC, ABC News Live, Disney+, and Hulu. ABC’s David Muir and Linsey Davis are the moderators.

What Are the Debate Rules?

Are these even really “debates”? They’re not being overseen by the Commission on Presidential Debates; Trump and Biden sidestepped the CPD in May and scheduled two alternative debates, the first of which we saw on CNN. It was a gong show with virtually no moderation from Jake Tapper or Dana Bash.

As we go to press, the plan is for ABC to use the same format and rules that CNN used on June 27 – including muted microphones when it’s not a candidate’s turn, and no live audience or props. This setup didn’t do Biden any favors, but it may play into Harris’s demonstrated ability to control the narrative in this election race – although her camp is reportedly asking for an additional “hot mic” that will capture all the cross-talk between Harris and Trump.

Where Will The Debate Matter Most?

With the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election apparently hanging on a knife edge, everyone’s focus has naturally turned to the ever-growing list of swing states that could turn blue or red in an instant. Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) has election odds for each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia; here are the closest races at press time:

• Arizona: Republicans -125, Democrats -110
• Georgia: Republicans -188, Democrats +137
• Michigan: Republicans +162, Democrats -225
• Nevada: Republicans -125, Democrats -110
• North Carolina: Republicans -188, Democrats +137
• Pennsylvania: Republicans -110, Democrats -125
• Wisconsin: Republicans +125, Democrats -175

There’s a natural bias towards Trump and the Republicans on the politics odds board, which makes the Democrats our recommended Best Bet to win all seven of these states. But as it stands, Harris and the Dems are in good shape when it comes to their “blue wall” across the Midwest and into parts of the Rust Belt. The GOP likely have to flip one of those purple states, and maintain their lead further south, in order to reach 270 seats in the Electoral College.

This is why everyone’s so keyed up about what might happen on September 10. Harris will probably do a better job of holding her ground than Biden did in June, but if a few thousand people in Arizona, Nevada or especially Pennsylvania come away unimpressed, that could be enough to tip the scales for Trump. Bet accordingly.