Saturday’s Olympics schedule promises us multiple games that are worth investing in at Top Sportsbooks.
For basketball, I am interested in the games between Serbia and Germany, which is for the bronze medal, and France and USA, which is for the gold medal.
I am also interested in investing in the marathon.
Basketball Picks
- Germany ML (+105)
- USA-France Under 176.5 (-110)
*Odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Marathon Pick
- Sisay Lemma (+1000) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Serbia vs. Germany (Basketball Bronze Medal)
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 05:00 AM ET at Bercy Arena
Serbia’s Three-Point Shooting
Serbia nearly upset the Americans, causing bettors to look to invest in Serbia as it faces a Germany team that just lost to France.
But we can’t allow one game to cause us to forget what the Serbs have shown themselves to normally be capable of doing in a given game.
On Thursday, the Serbs overperformed especially from behind the arc. They made fifteen three-pointers. For comparison’s sake, they made six fewer three-pointers in their second-to-last game, which came against Australia.
This is a Serbia team that lacks guard talent. Bogdan Bogdanovic plays in the NBA, although he has zero All-Star selections.
One must expect the Serbs to decline in their three-point shooting, which is one reason why they should not be favored. With Dennis Schroder, also an NBA player, the Germans have at least as much guard talent as Serbia.
Inside Scoring
Inside, the Serbs rely heavily on Nikola Jokic. While he is the best player on the court, he can only do so much by himself.
When he expends more energy on offense, it will be easier to score against him on defense – Germany has a nice collection of forwards and centers who play in the NBA and who are effective scorers, with Franz and Moritz Wagner being two such examples.
Besides, on defense, the Germans can simply double-team Jokic. In any case, Moritz Wagner has been a top-tier defender in these Olympics, as the metrics show.
The main point is that the Germans have so many NBA-level inside scorers to rely on. Their superior depth makes them a better team than Serbia. The wrong team is favored here merely because Serbia caught the Americans on an off day.
Basketball Pick: Germany ML (+105) at Bet365
USA vs. France (Basketball Gold Medal)
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Bercy Arena
France’s Preference
France does not want to win track meets. Instead of playing games in the 100s, the French want to slow games down. Their last game, against Germany, provides perfect proof of this preference.
One must expect them to try the same thing against the Americans. This is a great strategy for a less talented team to try. The Americans have awesome scorers, so if the French can create a lower-scoring affair, then they have greater potential to stick around.
With two NBA centers, they have the ability to compete on the glass and to otherwise be strong inside in order to establish their preferred slow tempo.
It is also natural for a team that relies on bigs scoring inside to play at a slower pace.
Team USA’s Defense
The Americans, in any case, have a nice mixture of high-level perimeter defenders and rim protectors with which to limit France’s scoring output.
For example, Joel Embiid shows himself in great form for the Americans. Always a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in the NBA, he is a monster against whom Wembanyama cannot physically compete.
America’s collection of well-reputed perimeter defenders, such as Derrick White with his NBA All-Defensive Team selections, will further help to limit France’s scoring total.
The French lack the same level of guard talent that they possess inside with Wembanyama, so they will really struggle to score from any spot on the floor against the Americans.
Takeaway
Team USA would have to score an absurd point total in order for the “over” to hit. The French have done a good job of mucking up games, and the posted point total in any case feels way too high for this affair, given what each team’s defense can do.
France has great inside defenders of its own, with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint.
There is too much good defense, especially from the Americans, for the posted over/under to be as high as it is.
Basketball Pick: Under 176.5 (-110) at Bet365
Men’s Marathon
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 02:00 AM ET in France
Sisay Lemma
The wrong runner is favored in this race. Benson Kipruto is receiving a lot of hype, but Sisay Lemma deserves a lot more respect from oddsmakers.
He is one of four runners to finish a marathon in under two hours and two minutes. Besides being fast in general, he is especially well-suited for hilly races. He proved this by winning the Boston Marathon in two hours and six minutes. He achieved this time despite running mostly by himself and leading from start to finish.
Lemma chose to ran in Boston in order to prepare for the Olympics.
That course is uniquely hilly.
So, while favored Kipruto is coming in with great expectations, runners like him, who just ran Tokyo’s flat course, will get a rude awakening.
Marathon Pick: Sisay Lemma (+1000) at Caesars Sportsbook
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