|
|
Basketball and swimming are two of the sports that, at top-rated sportsbooks, you can bet on. On Saturday, Team USA will face Puerto Rico and South Sudan will play Serbia.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Puerto Rico and South Sudan. I am also interested in the 1500m freestyle swimming, which you must bet on by Saturday at 5:00 AM. I will recommend Robert Finke for this event.
Basketball Picks
- Puerto Rico +33.5 (-110)
- South Sudan +14.5 (-115)
Swimming Pick
- Finke ML (+350)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Puerto Rico vs. USA (basketball)
Saturday, August 03, 2024 – 11:15 AM at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
What Team USA’s Results Show So Far
So far in group play, Team USA beat Serbia by 26 points before beating South Sudan by 17. Now, it is clear to anybody that Serbia is a better team than South Sudan.
So how could the Americans beat Serbia by so many more points than South Sudan?
The difference between these two games shows that motivation is a crucial factor to consider when deciding how to bet on Team USA’s games.
In the exhibition play, we saw this sort of difference play out, providing further evidence of my point. Team USA defeated a well-reputed Canada side by 14 points. Likewise in the exhibition, though, the Americans nearly lost to South Sudan and Germany.
Serbia and Canada are universally viewed as two of Team USA’s top contenders, whereas South Sudan and Germany do not get nearly as much respect.
The Americans beat South Sudan in exhibition play by 13 fewer points than they beat Canada by, and they beat Germany by 10 fewer points. In the rematch against South Sudan, Team USA won by just over 14 points. Evidently, Team USA wants to take the top contenders seriously but not the lower-profile contenders.
Motivation Is Key
Team USA is not going to come close to covering the spread against Puerto Rico because it won’t have adequate motivation to do so. The key is to determine whether Puerto Rico is, in people’s minds, more like Serbia and Canada or more like Germany and South Sudan.
A 33-point underdog, Puerto Rico is clearly perceived more like the latter two teams. As such, Team USA will not take Puerto Rico seriously enough to cover such a large spread.
Covering such a spread would require four quarters of considerable effort from the Americans, but they’ll have no reason to invest such prolonged effort, because it will only take a quarter or maybe two quarters to establish that they will win the game.
Given this factor of motivation – the Americans will establish themselves as the best team and then coast in order to conserve as much energy as they can for the rest of the tournament by relaxing as much as possible – I expect the Americans to cruise to maybe a 20-point win.
They’ll come well short of covering such a large spread, which reflects the teams’ talent differential but not something like Team USA’s motivational disposition.
Basketball Best Bet: Puerto Rico +33.5 (-110) at Bet365
Serbia vs. South Sudan (basketball)
Saturday, August 03, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
South Sudan’s Scoring Talent
South Sudan has too many guys who can score. Carlik Jones, for example, is in great form. He puts up high-point totals even when his three-point shooting isn’t up too far. Against Team USA, for example, South Sudan also got some nice contributions, scoring-wise, from its collection of forwards.
So far in group play, South Sudan scored 86 points against the Americans, in addition to scoring 90 points in a double-digit win against Puerto Rico, where they would have scored even more points if Puerto Rico had pushed them.
As evident when Serbia gave up 110 points to Team USA, a talented offense can put up massive numbers against this Serbian defense. South Sudan won’t score 110, but it will still score a lot, which means that the point total for Serbia would have to be unrealistically, absurdly high in order for the Serbs to have a chance to cover the spread.
Basketball Best Bet: South Sudan +14.5 (-115) at Bet365
1500m Freestyle (swimming)
Saturday, August 03, 2024 – 05:30 AM ET at La Defense Arena
Great Value Bet
This will be a competition that will come down to the wire. Robert Finke and Daniel Wiffen will be neck-and-neck, as they were in the 800m.
One would expect the odds to be pretty even, but Wiffen is favored heavily while Finke is a sizable underdog.
Given this disparity in the odds, there is tremendous betting value with Finke. We are getting maybe the best swimmer at an incredible price. This unique betting opportunity is too good to pass up.
Wiffen dominated the 1500m in the 2024 World Aquatics Championships, but he didn’t have to deal with Finke. Finke’s 1500m time in the 2023 World Aquatics Championships was faster by a few seconds, so Finke is certainly capable of beating Wiffen head-to-head.
The competition won’t otherwise be close, based on the inferior recent times of other competitors. Aging Gregorio Paltrinieri’s best days are behind him, and Florian Wellbrock just isn’t as good.
It’s going to be Finke or Wiffen, and we have to love Finke at this price.
Swimming Best Bet: Finke ML (+350) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler