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The UFC returns this weekend with a stacked pay-per-view event live from Las Vegas, and we could witness either a striking masterclass or a complete borefest when Michael Venom Page and Ian Garry do battle on the main card.
Elsewhere on the main card, following three cancellations and four opponent changes, big-bodied light brutes Roman Dolidze and Anthony Smith go to war in a light heavyweight contest.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 303 main card.
And don’t forget to check out more UFC picks on our YouTube channel. Today, our expert covered the Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes and Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Procházka bouts.
Picks Summary
- Ian Garry ML (-140)
- Roman Dolidze ML (-130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael “Venom” Page
UFC 303 Welterweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 29, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Ian Machado Garry
Ireland’s next biggest MMA export since Conor McGregor, Ian Machado Garry, isn’t popular amongst the UFC community and cannot be compared to ‘The Notorious’ in this regard. However, an unblemished 7-0 promotional record and consecutive striking clinics have seen him climb the rankings rapidly, and he could be one or two significant wins away from receiving a title opportunity.
- Garry Pro MMA Record: 14-0-0
- Garry KOs: 7
- Garry Submissions: 1
Michael “Venom” Page
Michael “Venom” Page is a striking enthusiast who was one of the biggest stars outside the UFC for most of his career. Now, after jumping, he’s already proved his worth by defeating Kevin Holland, despite critics not receiving a highlight reel finish that he’s known for.
- Page Pro MMA Record: 22-2-0
- Page KOs: 12
- Page Submissions: 4
Garry vs. Page: Fight Tape Analysis
Two strikers who love to kickbox could well force this fight into a bore-fest, point-fighting style of a scrap, and that’s one of the reasons why the outright betting odds are closer than what the respective UFC records show. Don’t be surprised if a sticky split decision is the end result.
The kicker here is that Garry could and should wrestle because Page is a fish out of water when fighting off his back, and the only chance for him to thrive is in striking situations.
That said, even in a kickboxing war, it’s difficult to overlook Garry. He might give up the finishing ability factor to MVP, but ultimately, the Brit isn’t getting any younger, and Garry remains undefeated as a professional. Furthermore, Page’s volume of strikes is incredibly low, and when it comes to speed, striking from the outside, and also UFC experience, this Irishman should hold a considerable advantage.
UFC 303 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with top-rated sportsbooks have Garry positioned as a slight betting favorite on the moneyline. The near-pick ’em’ pricing, however, feels like a steal when we’re still looking at a fighter in MVP who is unproven at this level of the sport.
Let’s not forget the two times Page fought a UFC-caliber fighter while competing in Bellator; he was completely outclassed, sleeping in one and dominating on the ground in the other. Garry prefers to strike; we know this, but he’s unquestionably the more well-rounded fighter.
If push comes to shove, if he cannot find the success standing, I wouldn’t count out a grappling scenario where he exposes Page for the one-sided, aging fighter that he is.
UFC Pick: Garry ML (-140) at Bet365
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Smith
UFC 303 Middleweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 29, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Roman Dolidze
Three fight cancellations and four opponent changes later, and here’s to hoping Roman Dolidze and Anthony Smith make it to UFC 303. Still, either way, I’m seeing a ton of disrespect on the former as he steps up on short notice for his 10th promotional bout to date.
Yes, Dolidze has displayed some questionable fight IQ at times, but although the public consensus seems to be siding with Smith, the odds aren’t matching the expectations. The Georgian brute has lost back-to-back fights, but he arguably won the Marvin Vettori decision which went against him, and what do we think would happen if Smith fought Imavov? I rest my case.
- Dolidze Pro MMA Record: 12-2-0
- Dolidze KOs: 7
- Dolidze Submissions: 3
Anthony Smith
Anthony Smith is a long-time journeyman who, despite having clear skills in the octagon, simply hasn’t strung his efforts together to make a case for title opportunities since getting blasted by Jon Jones in 2019.
With questionable cardio, a suspect level of durability, and three losses from his last five appearances, he isn’t a +250 underdog this weekend because of recency bias and on-paper optics.
- Smith Pro MMA Record: 37-19-0
- Smith KOs: 19
- Smith Submissions: 5
Dolidze vs. Smith: Fight Tape Analysis
If you haven’t guessed already, I’m backing Dolidze to walk out victorious this weekend. I’ve never supported Smith, and to his credit, the man is a slick submission artist and, notably, a former title challenger. Unfortunately, aged 35, it hasn’t taken much to defeat, and his recent losses haven’t been against the division elite – Khalil Rountree & Johnny Walker –, so what Dolidze lacks doesn’t concern me.
As for Dolidze, he’s a specimen of a man, and we’ve watched him weight-bully opponents in the past. Now that he’s moving up a weight class, said athleticism might actually be more impactful without the weight cut.
Smith’s path to victory would stem from a submission offensive, but Dolidze has notable BJJ defense and solid durability, and he has seen his past losses arrive by decision only. Then we look at power, strength in grappling situations, and striking speed, all of which favor the Georgian.
UFC 303 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have Dolidze placed as a slight betting favorite. Although I’m not a huge supporter of either fighter’s in-octagon IQ, I have no problem jumping on the fade Smith train because he’s dropped the ball on so many occasions.
Smith owns a 13-9 UFC record, yet he’s still competing in and amongst the division elite. Some of his losses have aged horribly, specifically Johnny Walker, and in what I expect could be a battle of strength, he isn’t going to match Dolidze. Even more so with that trash cardio he’s displayed on multiple occasions.
The moneyline price is good enough; no props are required. Dolidze for the win, most likely via KO/TKO.
UFC Pick: Dolidze ML (-130) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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