Bettors and political pundits alike were eagerly anticipating the Manhattan jury’s decision in the first-ever criminal trial for a former president of the United States.
Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts against him of falsifying business records and had to remain in attendance until a verdict was reached, but that didn’t stop him from gaining momentum in the U.S. presidential election odds for November.
Trump’s Sentencing Odds
The betting market has seen Trump priced at +600 to face jail time, while probation is set at -1500, and community service +175. While this market is not offered by regulated sportsbooks as politics betting is not sanctioned still as of 2024, these odds give a good indication that Trump is likely to avoid the big house and will be free to continue conducting his campaign.
The Hush Money Trial Summary: Guilty Verdict
The jury deliberated for 4.5 hours on Wednesday and returned questions to the judge about Pecker’s testimony, including his calls and meetings with Trump and Cohen. After careful consideration, the jury reached a verdict of guilty on all 34 felony counts.
Sentencing is set for July 11.
On Tuesday, closing arguments were held for the Trump hush money trial in New York. Trump’s defense attacked the credibility of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former right-hand man who went to prison after pleading guilty to the hush money payments.
The Trump defense referred to Cohen as the “Tom Brady of liars,” calling him the GLOAT, or the Greatest Liar of All Time.
Still, the prosecution defended Cohen’s credibility in a nearly 5-hour closing statement. David Pecker’s testimony was also crucial, as he had calls and meetings with Trump and Cohen about making the affair stories with Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal disappear. This was part of the “catch and kill” process Pecker used at the National Enquirer.
Pecker’s testimony played a key role in the jury’s decision-making process, helping piece together the conspiracy from the start.
The Impact on Election Odds and Polls
The impact on the betting odds and polls in response to the verdict remains to be seen. However, Trump has reportedly raised $34 million in campaign donations following the verdict.
This is a historic case that sets a legal precedent for future presidents. The verdict’s impact on the election odds will unfold in the coming weeks, as political analysts and voters react to this unprecedented legal outcome.
Joe Biden’s Approval Rating
You might think Joe Biden would revel in Trump’s legal problems, but that is not the case in the polls and odds. In fact, Biden is down to a 37.6% approval rating according to FiveThirtyEight, which is among his worst ratings yet during his presidency.
FiveThirtyEight also has Trump ahead in the national polls with 41.0% of the vote compared to 39.8% for Biden and 10.1% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump is up to a 53.6% chance of winning in November, a significant increase over a month ago when Biden had a slight lead or was at worse in a dead heat with Trump. Biden is at just 38.0% odds to win right now.
Biden is running out of time to turn things around. An approval rating under 46% this close to an election is usually a death blow for a candidate’s reelection bid.
The Trump hush money trial is not the only one Biden has his eye on right now either. His son Hunter is going to be on trial for a federal gun charge next week.
The Current U.S. Presidential Election Odds
According to RealClear Polling, which draws lines from 6 oddsmakers, Trump has a 51.7% chance to win the election. Biden is at 35.7%, a 16-point deficit that has exploded in the last month.
You only have to go back a month to April 30, 2024 to find Biden at 42.5% and Trump at 41.7%. However, the college protests for Palestine have negatively affected Biden with the youth and progressive vote, and Trump has so far been relatively unscathed by his hush money trial.
Expect to see an even larger Trump lead if he manages to get an acquittal or hung jury out of this trial. He has already called the trial “rigged” and the judge “corrupt” on Wednesday even as deliberations were ongoing. He will cast doubt on the remaining indictments if this one, the weakest of the 4, does not return a significant guilty verdict.
At this point, Biden better pray for a Trump guilty verdict on Friday followed by a Taylor Swift endorsement of Biden at the White House as the Kansas City Chiefs (and Travis Kelce) visit this Friday.
Making Biden’s Day
Given Trump’s recent lead and the escalation of social unrest across college campuses in the US, could Biden’s invitation be a tactic from the Democratic camp to start gaining some momentum?
In a video posted by the White House, incumbent President Joe Biden challenged former President Donald Trump to two debates in the upcoming months and finished the message by saying, “Make my day, pal.”
The events are scheduled for June 27, which will be hosted by CNN, and the second one on September 10. One notable aspect of the first debate is that it will take place before either candidate is officially nominated by their party. Actually, Trump hasn’t even mentioned who his VP will be.
Is Biden looking to strike back, or is he setting up his chess pieces for another move in the upcoming weeks?
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With both candidates having secured the required number of delegates to be the nominees for their respective parties, the stage is set for the first presidential rematch since 1956 in November. Now, let’s analyze the odds.
Remember that, since betting on politics is not regulated in the US, we referenced these odds from operators where it is regulated, such as Canada and the UK. The following are courtesy of SportsInteraction Canada.
2024 U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | SportsInteraction Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | Bet365 Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 | 54.55% | -138 | 55.56% |
| Joe Biden | +140 | 41.67% | +137 | 43.48% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.76% | +1400 | 5.26% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +3300 | 2.94% | +2800 | 3.45% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.96% | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Kamala Harris | +6600 | 1.49% | +6600 | 1.49% |
Biden-Trump Rematch
While the prospect of a Biden-Trump showdown was expected following the latest primaries’ results, analysts noted a surprising uptick in the incumbent president’s odds in the betting market. Notably, Biden’s odds saw an increase of approximately 20 cents, garnering attention amidst speculation about the 2024 election landscape.
It’s pertinent to highlight that Biden’s odds notably surged by approximately 90 cents since his impassioned 2024 State of the Union address. Now, he’s priced at +130.
By the way, mark your calendar for August because that’s when the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place in Chicago. That’s where Biden will officially receive the Democratic nomination.
Kennedy, the Wild Card
Now, onto an intriguing development. Robert Kennedy Jr. is making waves by refusing to fade into the background quietly. There was some buzz surrounding his consideration of Jets QB Aaron Rodgers as a potential running mate.
However, Kennedy opted for lawyer and tech entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan, announced on March 26th. This decision aims to broaden his ballot access, crucial since nearly half of states mandate a VP nomination.
RFK Jr.’s independent bid raises intriguing questions: whom will he support, and what sway might he hold in swing states? Although victory appears unlikely, his electoral role remains noteworthy.
Challenges Ahead
According to oddsmakers, Trump is the odds-on favorite at -120. Despite his stronghold on the Republican base, Trump faces the critical task of appealing to moderate voters—a demographic pivotal in securing Biden’s victory in 2020 and the funding of his campaign, given recent legal results.
Clock Ticks Down
Americans will head to the voting stations on Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, and two of the names they will encounter are Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
OddsTrader looks at the political horizon for 2024 and provides betting analysis as well as a full breakdown of the odds for the road to the White House.
Trump Hush Money Trial Ongoing
OddsTrader Betting Edge
• Donald Trump has a small lead over Joe Biden and leads with a price of -120, implying a win probability of 54.55% for him while the incumbent is sitting at +130, which means an implied probability of 43.48%.
• Nikki Haley was the Republican candidate who posed the biggest threat to Trump’s chances, however, she dropped out of the race after Super Tuesday.
• Gavin Newsom, governor of California, emerged as a dark horse in the Democratic Party, despite not making any official annoucements. Newsome has moved up to fifth place with +5000 odds for a win probability of 1.96%. At this point, he’s just an emergency option in case Biden suffers any health complications prior to the Democratic Convention.
• The electoral college is a voting system devised by the Founding Fathers. It divides the country into 538 electors.
• A swing state is a key battleground that could vote either way in a US presidential election. A candidate must often prevail in key swing states to become the next US president.
• You cannot bet on the 2024 US presidential election at US licensed sportsbooks. However, you can do so if you visit a country that permits politics betting, such as Canada or the UK.
How Can I Bet on the US Presidential Election?
Currently, you cannot bet on the next presidential election at regulated U.S. sportsbooks. Many states have now legalized sports betting, and some permit wagers on novelty and entertainment markets too. However, no state has passed a bill to allow political betting yet.
That is unfortunate, as political betting is extremely popular in the unregulated US market some European countries. Many of the leading U.S. sports betting operators offer odds on U.S politics in other countries such as the UK.
Examples include Bet365 and 888 Sport, along with BetMGM co-owner Entain – which runs Ladbrokes and Coral – and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment, which offers a wealth of exciting presidential election odds via sites such as Betfair, Paddy Power and SkyBet.
Kambi, which powers sportsbooks such as Unibet and BetRivers, also offers odds to win the 2024 presidential election. Those sportsbooks would be ready to launch U.S. politics betting immediately if legislation were passed.
BetMGM believes presidential election odds should be regulated in the U.S. by 2028.
Pool Betting
In the meantime, one intriguing option is to take part in free-to-play pools. For example, DraftKings launched a $100,000 pool to mark the 2020 presidential election.
Customers could answer a series of prop betting questions about the election, and the ones with the most correct answers earned bonus credits – which came with a 1x playthrough requirement.
As we now know, many of those predictions proved incorrect. However, some bettors made astute predictions and earned generous prizes.
FanDuel offered a similar “Bet the Ballot” contest in 2020. We hope to see similar pools launched to mark the 2024 presidential election.
How Do Election Odds Work?
The 2024 Presidential election odds could be presented in three formats:
- American Odds
- Fractional Odds
- Decimal Odds
American Odds
American odds begin with a plus (+) or a minus (-). For example, these were the US politics betting odds on the 2020 election before voting began:
- Joe Biden to Win: (-175)
- Donald Trump to Win: (+138)
When the odds begin with a minus, it tells you the amount you must wager to win $100. A $175 bet on Biden would have generated a $100 profit.
If the US presidential election odds begin with a plus, it highlights the profit you would earn from a $100 bet. A $100 bet on Trump would have earned a $138 profit.
In that example, a $20 bet on Biden would have earned an $11.43 profit, whereas a $20 bet on Trump would have earned a $27.60 profit. The smaller profit on Biden told you he was the favorite.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are popular in the UK, so they are often associated with US politics betting. To work out your potential profit, you just multiply your bet amount by the fraction.
For example:
- Joe Biden was 4/7 in 2020, so $20 x 4/7 = $11.43.
- Donald Trump was 11/8 in 2020. Hence, $20 x 11/8 = $27.60.
Decimal Odds
When you place a winning wager, you get your bet amount – known as your stake – back along with your profit. For example, a $20 bet at -175 would earn you a profit of $11.43, and a total return of $31.43, as you get your stake back.
Decimal odds tell you the total return you would receive, including your profit and stake. You just multiply your bet amount by the decimal figure. For example:
- Joe Biden was 1.57 in the last election, so $20 x 1.57 = $31.43
- Donald Trump was 2.38 back in 2020, so $20 x 2.38 = $47.60
Presidential Election Betting Options
The world’s leading US politics betting sites offer a wide range of 2024 election betting odds. These are some of the most popular markets:
Winner
This is a straightforward bet on which candidate will win the election. The US election betting odds 2024 will change regularly in the build-up to the day of the vote.
Popular Vote Winner
It is entirely possible to win the popular vote and still lose the election. Hillary Clinton and Al Gore know that all too well. The former won the popular vote by almost 2.8 million votes, while Gore earned around 500,000 more votes than George W. Bush.
The electoral college system is set up in a way that gives additional weighting to certain parts of the country, so it is not always enough to simply gain more votes than your opponent.
Winning Party
This is a simple wager on which party will produce the 2024 election winner. It means you do not have to specify a candidate, so it is a popular bet when the vote is still a couple of years away. As of May 25th, 2023, Bet365 has:
- Republican Party: -105
- Democratic Party: -115
- Independent: +2500
Winning Gender
A prediction on whether a man or a woman will win the election. A man was -250 in the US election betting odds 2024 and a woman was +350 before both Biden and Trump secured the required amount of delegates to become the presumptive nominee for their respective parties.
Democrat Nominee
This market allows you to predict which individual will earn the Democratic nominee.
Joe Biden: -450
Robert Kennedy Jr.: +350
Kamala Harris: +1600
Republican Nominee
On the other hand, these odds allow us to get a feel for the Republican ticket.
- Donald Trump: -250
- Ron DeSantis: +200
- Nikki Haley: +2500
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a voting system devised by the Founding Fathers. It divides the country into 538 electors, who formally choose the president through the electoral college.
The number of electors a state receives depends upon the size of its population. It is determined by the number of members of the House of Representatives and Senate each state has. For example, large states receive the most votes:
- California (55)
- Texas (38)
- Florida (29)
- New York (29)
Meanwhile, smaller states receive just 3 votes. These states are:
- Alaska
- Delaware
- Montana
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Vermont
- Wyoming
- District of Columbia (Washington D.C.)
A candidate needs to secure a majority of at least 270 votes to win the presidential election.
Will Donald Trump Run for President in 2024?
Yes, after securing a total of 1,215 delegates in the different primaries, Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. The former president retains a great deal of power and influence in the Republican Party.
In 2020, he received more than 18 million votes in the Republican primary. That was the most ever for an incumbent president in a primary.
The first Democrat elected after the Civil War, Grover Cleveland was the only president to leave the White House and return for a second term four years later. Trump is seemingly itching to follow in his footsteps.
Will Joe Biden Run for President in 2024?
Yes, incumbent President Joe Biden will run for re-election in 2024 after securing 3,933 delegates in the primaries which makes him the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Democrats expected him to do so, but they’re less sure if he should.
Just six sitting presidents decided not to run for a second term:
- James Knox Polk (1845–1849)
- James Buchanan (1857–1861)
- Rutherford B. Hayes (1877–1881)
- Calvin Coolidge (1923–1929)
- Harry S. Truman (1945–1953)
- Lyndon B. Johnson (1963–1969)
However, Coolidge took office when Warren Harding died and he then won the election of 1924. Up until that point, no president had served for more than eight years. Coolidge felt that a decade in power would be too long, and he chose not to run.
Meanwhile, Truman served nearly two terms, as he was just 82 days into his vice presidency when Franklin D. Roosevelt died, and Johnson served nearly six years after taking over from JFK following his assassination. That means Hayes was the last president to consciously decide not to run for re-election after four years in the Oval Office.
Some presidents were unable to win the nomination from their parties, which prevented them from running for a second term:
- Chester A. Arthur
- Andrew Johnson
- Franklin Pierce
- Millard Fillmore
- John Tyler
Meanwhile, eight presidents died in office. Four of them did so from natural causes:
- William Henry Harrison
- Zachary Taylor
- Warren G. Harding
- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Unfortunately, the other four were assassinated:
- Abraham Lincoln
- James A. Garfield
- William McKinley
- John F. Kennedy
They were all younger than Biden, who took the presidential oath of office 61 days after turning 78, so it is not a foregone conclusion that he will run.
Who are the Top 3 Candidates for the Democrat Party?
Given Biden’s age, there are some concerns about his health. With that in mind, these are the top 3 candidates for the Democrat Party, besides the incumbent President:
- Kamala Harris
- Gavin Newsom
- Michelle Obama
What are the Key Swing States for the 2024 Presidential Election?
Some states always vote Democrat, while others are Republican strongholds. Yet certain states sit somewhere in the middle, and they could swing either way.
These swing states are key battlegrounds for presidential candidates, so they spend a large chunk of their time campaigning in those areas.
Biden won five key swing states in 2020:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
They are likely to be the decisive states yet again in 2024. We can expect a bitter war of words between the candidates as they fight to seize those swing states, and it will be fascinating to see how they vote in the upcoming 2022 midterm election.
2024 Presidential Election Odds FAQs
Can I Bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You cannot bet on the 2024 US presidential election at licensed sportsbooks such as BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel. However, you can place a bet on the election if you happen to visit a country that permits politics betting, such as the UK.
Can I bet on US politics?
You will not find US election betting odds 2024 at regulated sportsbooks in the United States, as politics wagering is not yet permitted. BetMGM has speculated that it could be available in time for the 2028 election.
However, DraftKings offered a $100,000 free-to-play pool on the 2020 presidential election, so it could launch a similar promotion in 2024.
Where can I bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You can bet on the 2024 US presidential election at sites such as Bet365, 888 Sport, Betfair and Ladbrokes. They make Donald Trump the favorite to gain revenge by beating Joe Biden in their current US presidential election odds, but there is still a long way to go.
You will not find US politics odds at sportsbooks in the US, as betting on elections is unregulated in the United States.
Where can I bet on US politics?
You must be physically located in a country that permits betting on politics. For example, bookmakers in Europe offer US politics betting, allowing customers to speculate on the next US president.
You will find Joe Biden odds, Trump 2024 odds, Democrat and Republican betting odds, and much more.
How is the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Determined?
A candidate must win at least 270 of the electoral college votes to become the next US president. In 2020, Joe Biden won 306 votes, which saw him claim a majority. Donald Trump, who received 232 votes, may return to run against Biden in 2024.
Nonetheless, current odds to win the 2024 election suggest that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could secure the Republican nomination instead.
What is a swing state?
A swing state is a key battleground that could vote either way in a US presidential election. A candidate must often prevail in key swing states to become the next US president. In 2020, the most important swing states were:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Donald Trump won Florida, but Joe Biden claimed the other four and he won the election.
What is the US Electoral college?
The Electoral College is a process used to determine the outcome of the presidential election every four years. It consists of 538 electors and a candidate must secure a majority of at least 270 to win the election.
As the most populous state, California accounts for 55 votes, whereas smaller states such as Vermont and Wyoming only receive 3 votes.
Are there other parties besides the Democrats and Republicans?
The Democrats and Republicans are the most powerful parties by a comfortable margin, but smaller parties can put forward candidates such as:
- Reform Party
- Libertarian Party
- Socialist Party
- Natural Law Party
- Constitution Party
- Green Party
Yet you will find that Republicans and Democrats dominate the presidential election odds, as it is inconceivable that anyone will break the two-party dominance any time soon.
Incidentally, the odds to win 2024 election glory currently make Republic candidates the favorites.