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Football fans can only dream of a matchup between teams that are the best 2 offenses and defenses in the league. According to the UFL odds, that’s what the UFL is getting in Week 7 between the St. Louis Battlehawks (5-1) and Birmingham Stallions (6-0).
Only a 64-yard field goal by Michigan in Week 1 is preventing this one from being a matchup of undefeated teams. That’s the big showdown on Saturday afternoon. We also have an important game for San Antonio on Sunday against coach Wade Phillips’ former stomping grounds in Houston.
We selected our best bets for the Week 7 schedule below.
Picks Summary
- Showboats-Renegades Under 45 Points (-110)
- Battlehawks-Stallions Over 47.5 Points (-110)
- Brahmas -3 (-115)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Memphis Showboats vs. Arlington Renegades
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Choctaw Stadium
Can the Renegades (0-6) just get a win this year? Last week was the latest heartbreak when they lost on a last-second field goal. Still, they are a 3.5-point home favorite at top-rated sportsbooks against a bad Memphis team this week.
However, we are more interested in that total of 45 points.
Memphis: Disgusting Offense
Plain and simple, a bad offensive line and uninspired quarterback play make it impossible to field a competent offense in professional football.
Yet, the 2024 Showboats are downright disgusting at moving the ball with any efficiency:
- Memphis is next to last in scoring at 17.8 points per game.
- Memphis is last in yards per game (220.2).
- Memphis is averaging just 4.8 yards per pass attempt, which wouldn’t have been good in the NFL in the 1930s.
- Memphis is also last, albeit in a tight battle with Houston, in averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
- Memphis has allowed a league-high 28 sacks, 8 more than any other team and 15 more than the No. 3 team.
Last week was the first time all season the Showboats scored more than 19 points, and they lost 39-21 to Birmingham.
The Renegades Are Close
We keep saying the Renegades are close to a win, then they do something silly like call a timeout with over a minute left and in field goal range. Then they ran the ball on 3rd-and-long and settled for a long field goal, leaving the opponent enough time to drive the field for a game-winning field goal.
If Arlington is going down to the wire with Memphis, then that’s not a good sign for the offense. Luis Perez leads the UFL in passing yards (1,330), but his efficiency hasn’t been up to par with the top UFL quarterbacks this year like AJ McCarron and Adrian Martinez.
Memphis has a dreadful offense, but the defense has also allowed at least 32 points in 4 straight games. That feels like something that could regress to the mean and they can keep Arlington under 30.
Keep in mind Arlington can be Jekyll and Hyde with its scoring output this season. The team has 3 games with no more than 15 points scored and 3 games with at least 24 points. Last week was a big number (27) in a loss, but we are leaning on the lower score this week.
The Pick
Memphis is minus-4 in turnover differential, the worst in the UFL. If the Renegades can’t get a win against this team, they might be going 0-10 this year.
The Showboats usually score in the teens. We could see Arlington finally breaking through and getting a 24-17 type of win or better. However, we don’t trust either team to score enough for the over to hit. Let’s trust the Arlington defense to step up with a big game for the team’s 1st win of the season.
UFL Pick: Showboats-Renegades Under 45 (-110) at Bet365
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
You rarely get a treat like this in football where the top 2 scoring offenses and top 2 scoring defenses are facing off in a game where the teams are a combined 11-1. This could easily be the UFL Championship Game in June.
However, we get to see it in Week 7. The Stallions are a 4-point home favorite with a total of 47.5 points. Do the great offenses or great defenses win out in this game between teams that are so much better than the rest of the league? Our focus is on that total.
Why the Battlehawks Should Be Able To Score on Birmingham
The Battlehawks have AJ McCarron, who is leading all quarterbacks with 13 touchdown passes. He has only thrown 2 interceptions despite leading the league with 199 pass attempts, so he usually protects the ball well.
McCarron has taken 13 sacks, but he does his best to get rid of the ball. The Stallions lead the league in sacks, so a veteran quarterback who protects the ball is very important in a matchup like this. The Battlehawks are tied with Arlington for a league-low 5 giveaways on offense.
Still, the Battlehawks are not all McCarron. While things have slowed down with the running game in recent weeks, St. Louis is still 4th in rushing yards and 4th in yards per carry (4.2). Those are solid numbers.
Why Birmingham Can Crack St. Louis’ Hot Defense
The Battlehawks have been playing great defense, allowing 37 points in the last 3 games combined. Last week, St. Louis held Houston to 8 points. It will be fascinating to see Birmingham’s big-play passing game against a St. Louis pass defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per pass attempt. Vince Lombardi would be impressed with that number.
He’d also be impressed by Adrian Martinez, who threw for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns for the Stallions last week. He’s shown he can rush for over 100 yards in a game this season already and is ranked No. 2 in the league with 327 rushing yards. Look out if he can throw like that too.
Martinez should definitely hold the starting job down as he’s better than Matt Corral. Martinez is averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt with 7 touchdowns to 1 interception. The quarterback who wins this duel could have the inside track for UFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Martinez makes the Birmingham running game an even greater threat. That’s why the Stallions lead the league with 874 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry.
The Pick
A lot of ways to approach this one in an elite matchup between teams that are so far ahead of the curve. We cannot stress enough how much each is the biggest test for one another this year. Playing the Showboats or Roughnecks just can’t compare to how these teams are performing.
With that said, if this was in fact a championship game, the smart money would be on the under. Go with defense in a playoff setting. That’s still what wins championships. But for a Week 7 game with both offenses hot? We think the over is the best bet as one of these quarterbacks could make a huge statement and drop a big number on one of these defenses.
Best-case scenario, we get a back-and-forth shootout affair that goes down to the wire with both teams scoring nearly 30 points. But in a classic big game, I always liked 27-24 as a final score. That would be good enough to get us over in this one. Enjoy it.
UFL Pick: Battlehawks-Stallions Over 47.5 (-110) at Bet365
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Houston Roughnecks
Sunday, May 12, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Rice Stadium
To end the week, the Houston Roughnecks (1-5) are hosting the San Antonio Brahmas (4-2). Both teams are coming off a low-scoring loss, but the Brahmas are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 40 points.
We are looking at that spread.
The Brahmas Still in Line for Playoffs
Despite last week’s loss, the Brahmas are still 3rd in the UFL with a plus-23 scoring differential. If the playoffs started this week, the Brahmas would be in St. Louis in the XFL semifinal game.
San Antonio ranks 3rd in the league in total offense with 291.5 yards per game. The Brahmas are No. 4 in points scored per game (21.3) while Houston is dead last (14.0) in that stat.
The Brahmas are only trailing St. Louis with 10 touchdown passes on offense. It was a rough week for quarterback Quinten Dormady, who only threw for 79 yards on 26 attempts. However, he’s usually better than that, and the Houston pass defense is average at best.
Look for Dormady to bounce back and lead a better offensive output this week.
The Poor Houston Offense
Rough is a word to describe this Roughnecks offense. Not only is it averaging a league-low 14.0 points, but Houston has scored 23 fewer points than the next-worst offense (Memphis).
In fact, Houston is battling with Memphis for who can have the most embarrassing rushing offense this season:
- Memphis has 102 rushes for 332 yards (3.3 yards per carry).
- Houston has 103 rushes for 340 yards (3.3 yards per carry).
Being one dimensional is problematic when your best dimension (passing) is nothing to write home about. The Brahmas also have the No. 3 defense, so good luck to Houston on improving these poor offensive stats.
The Pick
The Brahmas play better football on both sides of the ball than Houston. Look for head coach Wade Phillips to get his defense in elite form this week against the worst-scoring offense in the league and for San Antonio to improve to 5-2 while covering the spread for your UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Brahmas -3 (-115) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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