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This Saturday, the UFC is set to make history with its 300th pay-per-view event, marking a significant milestone in professional mixed martial arts.
With our expert analysis, we’re ready to guide you through the most noteworthy betting picks for the incredibly stacked UFC 300 main card, ensuring you’re well-informed and confident in your bets.
Picks Summary
- Gaethje-Holloway Over 3.5 Rounds (-150) at Bet365
- Oliveira ML (+180) at Caesars Sportsbook
Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
UFC 300 Lightweight “BMF” Title Bout
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
In the midst of the UFC 300 pay-per-view main card, former featherweight champion Max Holloway fights Justin Gaethje for the “BMF” championship.
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje won his second fight of the year and the “BMF” title last summer in Salt Lake City with a knockout victory against Dustin Poirier in the second round. A must-see, all-action fighter who proved he’s the baddest MF’er in the sport, “The Highlight” has amassed a record of 8-4 inside the Octagon with twelve post-fight bonuses.
- Gaethje Pro MMA Record: 25-4-0
- Gaethje KOs: 19
- Gaethje Submissions: 2
Max Holloway
With little introduction required, boasting victories over Arnold Allen and Chan Sung Jung in his last two fights, Holloway returns to the lightweight division for the second time during his tenure with the UFC. Four years ago, the Hawaiian superstar fought for the 155-pound championship in a late-notice bout with Poirier; he lost, but this time around, he seems to be more determined and prepared to compete as a lightweight.
- Holloway Pro MMA Record: 25-7-0
- Holloway KOs: 11
- Holloway Submissions: 2
Gaethje vs. Holloway: Fight Tape Analysis
Bettors should instantly take an under on takedown props if available because these two are equally known for one thing and one thing only: fist fights, with the addition of kicks, of course.
Gaethje has earned a reputation for owning heavy hands, and of course, 19 career knockouts support this belief. However, the majority of his UFC knockouts aren’t as impressive as the paper they’re written on, as aging fighters such as Donald Cerrone, James Vick and James Ferguson would’ve likely been KO’d via a strong gust of wind.
Gaethje hasn’t finished an opponent with his fists since 2019, and critics will argue his most recent head kick knockout of Poirier; however, this is Max Holloway we’re talking about, a fighter who’s fought the crème de la crème of mixed martial artists and has never been stopped via KO/TKO in 32 pro bouts.
With a refined, technical striking skill set of his own, we can’t hide from the fact that knockout victories have also eluded Holloway. In combination with the aforementioned insight, this contest smells like an instant classic, where two respected strikers will duke it out until the final round for a Fight of the Night-worthy performance.
UFC 300 ‘BMF’ Title Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds believe Gaethje is the rightful favorite, and as the natural lightweight competitor, I understand this stance. That said, from an outright winner standpoint, it’s a dog or pass situation, personally.
However, I’ll be doing my best to avoid volatile moneyline positions, which UFC 300 is filled with, especially in this bout, where Holloway’s insane durability will be enough to cover the total and see this fight to the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-150) [1.5u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Charles Oliveira
UFC 300 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
In the last fight of the event not for a championship, lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan takes on former champion Charles Oliveira, and the winner will likely be gifted as the next 155-pound title contender.
Arman Tsarukyan
In his first UFC fight, Tsarukyan presented balls of steel by facing Islam Makhachev. Despite losing a close decision, he solidified his status as a rising talent to watch. Since then, he has gone 8-1, with just a closely contested decision separating him from a 9-fight win streak. His most recent victory was a resounding 3-0 thrashing of Dariush in Austin, which set the stage for this much-anticipated matchup.
- Tsarukyan Pro MMA Record: 21-3-0
- Tsarukyan KOs: 9
- Tsarukyan Submissions: 5
Charles Oliveira
Last summer, Oliveira breezed past Beneil Dariush in Vancouver. He was set to rematch with Islam Makhachev for the title in Abu Dhabi in October, but a nasty cut he got late in training camp caused him to pull out of the fight. The popular Brazilian has won 12 of his past 13 fights, with the exception of one ending inside the distance, positioning him with 20 stoppage wins in the UFC Octagon to date.
- Oliveira Pro MMA Record: 34-9-0
- Oliveira KOs: 10
- Oliveira Submissions: 21
Tsarukyan vs. Oliveira: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s always a positive when you own elite credentials in one area, as Tsarukyan does. Wrestling has been the pillar of his MMA career success thus far, and let’s be honest, he gave Makhachev one of his toughest runs thus far.
Unfortunately for him, Charles Oliveira is one of the most respected jiu-jitsu practitioners in the promotion. Due to his wealth of BJJ knowledge, he isn’t afraid to accept grounded positions, which has seen him win via submission in 73% of his 22 UFC wins to date.
This contest is a whole lot deeper than “Tsarukyan’s wrestling game will be capitalized via Oliveira’s BJJ,” however, as it’s expected that ‘Do Bronx’ should also have a power and technical ability in the striking realm of this bout, it becomes difficult to ignore the +180 ML price tag of a fighter that’s lost just 1 of his last 13 octagon appearances.
Sure, the wrestling upside undoubtedly sides with Tsarukyan, but aged 27, I still believe his fight intelligence has room to grow, and the unstoppable force that has been Charles Oliveira over the last seven years deserves infinitely more respect on this betting line.
UFC 300 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices at OddsTrader have placed Oliveira at a +180 moneyline price, and based on principle alone, it’s a no-brainer betting position to be in.
I’m backing the fighter with more big-fight experience, who’s lifted championship gold and who’s displayed credible ability in all facets of MMA. Oppositely, I’m fading Tsarukyan, who Joaquim Silva almost dropped, made Mateusz Gamrot look like a credible striker and one that lacks high-profile experience with just one argument-worthy path to victory.
UFC Pick: Oliveira ML (+180) [1u returns 1.80u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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