The Chicago Bears will select quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but what comes after that remains a mystery. Amid swirling NFL Draft rumors, there was recent buzz suggesting Chicago could move up from the ninth overall pick.

The Bears don’t have a ton of draft capital to work with in 2024, in part due to a series of trades made within the last year. While Chicago does hold the 1st and 9th overall picks, its only other selections are 75th overall (Round 3) and 122nd overall (Round 4).

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It’s why the Bears’ front office has been aggressive this offseason at both addressing needs and adding significant depth to the roster. Unable to take more swings at a deep pool of prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, Chicago instead is dependent on a few premium picks panning out.

While trading down could be an option, as it would provide general manager Ryan Poles with more opportunities to land starting-caliber players, the more realistic scenario is Chicago making its pick at No. 9 overall, there had been a recent buzz pointing to the Bears as a trade-up possibility.

In a recent NFL Draft mailbag, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated noted that while he likes the idea of the Bears trading up for a player like Marvin Harrison Jr., it is “difficult to see happening for a key reason.

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Analyzing the likelihood of the Bears trading up

As Breer notes, the limited amount of Bears draft picks in 2024 makes trading up with a team like the Los Angeles Chargers or Arizona Cardinals very difficult. From Arizona’s perspective, there would be far more value gained in a return if it trades down with a team moving up for a quarterback.

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Now, if the Cardinals swing a draft-day trade with a club like the Minnesota Vikings, then the door could be opened up for Chicago. Minnesota would take the highest-rated quarterback on its board and with the Chargers’ front office wanting to address a glaring number of needs it could be open to moving down a few spots from the fifth pick to the ninth overall selection.

However, Los Angeles would likely set the asking price at the 75th overall pick and a second-round pick in 2025. NFL general managers place more value on immediate picks, meaning a 2025 second-round selection is less valuable than a second-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

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The idea of pairing Harrison Jr. with Williams will certainly be appealing to the Bears’ front office, but pulling off that type of move could prove difficult. It would become even more complicated if the Cardinals repeat their process from the 2023 NFL Draft, trading out of the top four and then trading back up into the top six picks to land a top-rated player at a position of need. If that happens, Arizona would have more capital to outbid Chicago for a top-five pick.