Amidst today’s bustling MLB schedule, let’s explore the forecast of our computers for one of the evening’s most exhilarating matchups.

MLB Pick

• Astros ML (-120) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

Wednesday, April 10, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium

The Astros are projected to win this game, 6-4, as -120 favorites per Bet365. Although the Astros will send out a top pitching prospect with no experience, the model isn’t worried.

Astros’ Young Gun

The Astros will pitch top pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has already thrown 8.1 innings in AAA. In those 8.1 innings, he’s allowed seven hits and two runs. He also has struck out ten but walked seven.

That said, he’ll face a Royals lineup that has hit a .337 wOBA to begin the season. The Royals have also walked just 7.6% of the time and have struck out 21.3% of the time.

Arrighetti shouldn’t have a super hard time with this Kansas City lineup.

Pitching Puzzle

Meanwhile, the Royals will give the ball to veteran pitcher Seth Lugo. Lugo has only struck out 14% of batters, but he’s held opponents to a .044 ISO and wOBA of .254 to begin the season.

Lugo struggled against lefties last year and didn’t earn high strikeouts against righties. He’ll face an Astros lineup that has hit a .199 ISO and wOBA of .356 with just 19.8% of strikeouts against righties since last year.

Lugo has been really good this season, but he’s still allowed 31.6% of line drives and 44.7% of hard contact. That’s going to bite him eventually.

Let’s back the Astros at -120.

MLB Pick: Astros (-120) at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler