We’re back with more March Madness bets from the AI Model. Here are three more bets that the model loves for Saturday’s Round 2 matchups. Let’s keep the wins coming with our NCAAB odds!
Picks Summary
- Iowa State -7.5 (-110)
- Tennessee -6.5 (-110)
- Duquesne +10.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Washington State Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – 06:10 PM ET at CHI Health Center Omaha
Our AI Model predicts Iowa State will survive with a 68-60 win over Washington State in the Round of 32 matchup in the East Region. Meanwhile, Caesars has Iowa State at -7.5, which shows some value on the Cyclones.
Offensive Challenges
The Washington State Cougars earned a huge win over the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday in the East Region. Washington State put together a dream season in the Pac-12 and is now a top-32 team.
That’s all great until they have to face Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the nation’s toughest defenses and Washington State figures to have a lot of trouble scoring in this one.
The Cougars have shot 34.2% from deep and 52.1% from inside the arc. They’ve also kept turnovers down to 16.2%. But that number figures to increase against an Iowa State defense that has recorded more than 25% of turnovers per game this season.
Possession Advantage
On the other hand, Washington State rarely forces turnovers, meaning Iowa State will likely have more possessions and take more shots in this game.
Therefore, I’m going to stick with Iowa State at -7.5. The Cyclones looked fantastic in their opening win over South Dakota State, in a game that they won 82-65.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa State -7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Longhorns vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
The AI Model suggests Tennessee wins the second round of the Midwest Region over Texas, 77-70. With Caesars’ line at -6.5 for Tennessee, the play is the Volunteers in this one.
Lockdown Defense
The Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers held their first-round opponent to below 50 points. It’s funny because both teams have actually hit the Over more than the Under throughout the season.
That kind of defense is more expected from Tennessee. The Volunteers have held opponents to 31% from deep and 44.2% from inside the arc. Teams have also added just 28.3% of offensive rebounds against Tennessee.
The only area of concern for Tennessee is the high amount of fouling. But that’s what happens when you press and play lockdown defense. The good news for Tennessee is Texas doesn’t typically get to the foul line at a high rate, either.
Rebounding Disadvantage
Meanwhile, Texas has allowed 30% of offensive rebounds on the defensive end. The Longhorns have also fouled at a high rate, like Tennessee. However, the difference here is that Tennessee actually gets to the foul line at a much higher rate than Texas.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tennessee win the rebounding battle, shoot better from downtown, and earn more foul shots.
If that happens, Tennessee has this game in the bag. I agree with the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Tennessee -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Duquesne Dukes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – 08:40 PM ET at CHI Health Center Omaha
The AI Model believes Duquesne will only lose by ten points to Illinois in the Round of 32. Caesars has the Dukes at +10.5. Therefore, the play in this game is Duquesne, the No. 11 seed.
Emerging Power
The Duquesne Dukes survived and advanced with a win over BYU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Duquesne wanted to be physical and force a slower game. They got exactly what they wanted and stunned BYU with the first-round win.
Duquesne has nine consecutive games and has really started to shine. Overall, the offense doesn’t have crazy metrics. However, the defense has held opponents to 31.7% from deep and 48.2% from inside the arc.
The Dukes might get out-rebounded and will still give up many fouls. But as long as Duquesne forces tough shots against Illinois, they’ll have a chance at winning this game.
Offensive Efficiency
On the flip side, Illinois has only earned 12.3% of turnovers per game. Therefore, Duquesne likely won’t have trouble getting shots up. The Fighting Illini have allowed 34.4% from deep and 46.6% from inside.
The Dukes play slow but still shoot the three at a high rate. In March, anything can happen. If the Dukes start hitting threes consistently, Illinois won’t have any answers.
Duquesne has nailed 34% from downtown this season. That’s not a very high rate. But it’s good enough, especially with Illinois struggling to get stops from downtown this season.
Let’s back Duquesne to at least cover the 10.5-point spread. I like where the AI is going with this one.
NCAAB Pick: Duquesne +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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