The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we’ll witness two consistent finishers go head-to-hate when Brazil’s Renato Moicano faces Drew Dober in the co-main event.
Elsewhere on the main card, two veterans of the sport, Randy Brown and Muslim Salikhov, will trade blows, and it’s the “Rudeboy” who is heavily favored by the sportsbooks to walk out of Vegas with another W on his record.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into some noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 85 co-main event and main card.
Picks Summary
- Renato Moicano ML (-150)
- Randy Brown ML (-225)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
UFC Vegas 85 Lightweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, February 03, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano has spent nine years amongst the elite-level talent pool of the UFC, and despite failing to overcome the heights of the featherweight division, his current run at 145 lbs has shown significant improvements.
Once known for owning a questionable chin that can easily be tested, Moicano has now overcome the likes of Jai Herbert, Alexander Hernandez, and Brad Riddell – all known for their offensive – to win 3 of his previous 4 bouts since 2021.
- Moicano Pro MMA Record: 17-5-0
- Moicano KOs: 0
- Moicano Submissions: 10
Drew Dober
Drew Dober is that guy; he’s the household name that every MMA fan knows because he brings violence to the octagon in the shape of devastating knockouts, which, nine times out of ten, lead to more highlights added to the long reel of punching prowess.
Sure, he has his flaws, and he’ll likely never challenge for a world title, but if there’s one guarantee when Dober steps into the octagon, it’s that he’s going to put on a show or die trying for those in attendance and watching on TV at home.
- Dober Pro MMA Record: 27-12-0
- Dober KOs: 11
- Dober Submissions: 9
Moicano vs. Dober: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s argued that KO-power and pressure have been the kryptonite of Moicano’s career to date. But we must note that since moving up from the featherweight division, a slightly different story has been told in his tenure.
Moicano has been scheduled against multiple skilled strikers since moving weight classes and has triumphed effortlessly behind a masterclass of Brazilian jiu-jitsu and intelligent decision-making.
Four of Dober’s previous six losses were by submission, and if this isn’t a cause for concern ahead of UFC Vegas 85, I don’t know what is. He finds success in baiting opponents into a fistfight and delivering a KO blow, but that’s something I struggle to envision Moicano falling victim to.
While Dober’s takedown defense and fight IQ are respectable, for me, Moicano’s fundamentals in all areas of MMA will be too much for the American. Furthermore, and outside of landing a swinging bomb, I wouldn’t be surprised if Moicano’s length, jab, and low kicks outland Dober in a striking battle.
UFC Vegas 85 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has positioned Moicano as the betting favorite, and I agree. Opening odds were around -120 and have since shifted to -150, but I think the moneyline is acceptable up to -160 on this contest.
Behind respectable offensive striking and a grappling game that will consistently threaten Dober’s cardio and chance of a knockout, I have to side with the more skilled martial artist in Moicano, and don’t be surprised if he takes advantage of his opponent’s BJJ defensive deficiencies.
UFC Pick: Renato Moicano ML (-150) [1.50u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
UFC Vegas 85 Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, February 3, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Randy Brown
Seven years and sixteen fights later, “Rudeboy” Randy Brown has fought the who’s-who of the UFC welterweight division, and at age 33, he is undoubtedly delivering the prime performances of his career.
- Brown Pro MMA Record: 17-5-0
- Brown KOs: 6
- Brown Submissions: 5
Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov, 39, despite being Russian, is one of the rare examples of a Russian export who hasn’t relied on a wrestling offensive during his professional career. However, and despite a respectable 6-3 record, activity has always been an issue, and now, closely reaching 40, we’re watching a decline in success with two losses from his last three bouts.
- Salikhov Pro MMA Record: 19-4-0
- Salikhov KOs: 12
- Salikhov Submissions: 3
Brown vs. Salikhov: Fight Tape Analysis
On average, Salikhov competes once per year. In his day, kickboxing was his thing, but the older he’s become, a lethargic output alongside a concerning cardio level has opened up the door to defeat.
Brown can strike, grapple, and clinch with success, and while this bout five years may have told a different story, it’s difficult to ignore “Rudeboy” and his multiple paths to victory this weekend.
Cardio, speed, and size are all siding with Brown. Whether he punishes Salikhov with his jab at range or decides to keep it in close quarters with clinch and cage work, the Russian will tire after five minutes and won’t be able to keep up with the striking numbers his opponent will reach.
UFC Vegas 85 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Brown as a significant betting favorite at -225, a price that wasn’t very surprising.
Brown opened at -270, meaning that money has come in on Salikhov, but the line has adjusted in the wrong direction as far as I’m concerned, so it’s time to pounce on Brown before the value potentially fades closer to the opening line.
UFC Pick: Randy Brown ML (-225) [2.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.