Our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread are live with a look at four games that could result in upsets or closer-than-expected matchups.

The Los Angeles Rams have won three consecutive games heading into Sunday’s game in Baltimore. Can Sean McVay’s squad keep this close despite being touchdown underdogs?

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have not played well as of late. Will they fall victim at home against a Buffalo Bills team rested after its bye.

Here, we look at four NFL picks against the spread that you can bank on.

NFL picks against the spread, Week 14 edition

Game	Date, time
Los Angeles Rams (+7.0) at Baltimore Ravens	Dec. 10, 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons	Dec. 10, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Raiders (+3.0)	Dec. 10, 4:05 PM ET
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs	Dec. 10, 4:25 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams keep it close against Ravens

Sean McVay has his Rams at a surprising 6-6 on the season and in playoff contention heading into Week 14. They have won three consecutive games with Matthew Stafford (8 TD, 1 INT) playing at an elite clip during that span. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense has yielded a mere 49 points in this three-game span.

Coming off their bye, the Ravens sit at 9-3 and tied for the top spot in the AFC. They have won six of seven. Most figure that Baltimore will take care of an inferior Rams team at home come Sunday. We’re not 100% sold on that. The injury to Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews is notable in that he’s Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. Covering tight ends is also a weak link on the Los Angeles’ defense (70% completion against).

This should play a major role in the Rams keeping the game close despite Baltimore finding a way to come out on top.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pull off must-needed win

Baker Mayfield talked about the need for Tampa Bay to overcome recent struggles ahead of last week’s game against the one-win Carolina Panthers. It wasn’t pretty, but they came out on top by the score of 21-18 after losing six of their past seven. The question now is whether Tampa can pull off a big road win against the first-place Atlanta Falcons in Week 14 and even up the division.

We like the team’s chances. While Atlanta has won two consecutive after losing three straight, they came against the lowly Saints and Jets. Mayfield (18 TD, 8 INT) has vastly outplayed Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (8 TD, 8 INT) this season. We envision this to be the difference as Tampa goes into Atlanta and pulls off the minimal road upset.

Las Vegas Raiders remain alive in AFC Playoff picture

It’s not even known whether Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall or Nick Mullens will be getting the start Sunday afternoon against the Raiders. That’s not a great position for a .500 team such as Minnesota to be in. This is especially true after Dobbs tossed four interceptions in the Vikings’ Week 12 loss to the Chicago Bears ahead of their bye.

Losers of two consecutive after a strong start in the post-Kirk Cousins part of the schedule, Minnesota now must contend with a Raiders team that’s also battling for its playoff lives. At the very least, Vegas QB situation is settled with Aidan O’Connell continuing to get the start out of the team’s bye. The Raiders have won each of their past four home games. We expect that trend to continue Sunday afternoon.

More struggles for Kansas City Chiefs

At 8-4 on the season, Kansas City is two games ahead of Denver in the AFC West. It is not in danger of losing the division. However, a total of six teams boast better records than the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs heading into Week 14.

The Chiefs are 2-3 in their past five games and have scored less than 20 points three times during that span. That included an ugly 27-19 road loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 13. For his part, Patrick Mahomes has combined for seven touchdowns and six turnovers during this ugly five-game span.

Sure, the Bills find themselves at a mere 6-6 on the season and have lost four of six coming out of their bye. But we like this matchup for Josh Allen and Co. Primarily, Buffalo’s ability to hold a struggling Chiefs offense in check. Remember, the Bills rank fifth in the NFL in both scoring and points given up. They are much better than their 6-6 record indicates.