Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season has arrived, and with it we have 3 NFL best bets to deliver courtesy of our Pickswise NFL handicappers. We continue to be on a hot run this season, with our experts currently up +49.3 units on their side-and-total NFL picks for every game. We also got this week started right as we cashed our Bengals vs Ravens Same Game Parlay at +982 odds! Now we’re turning our attention to the rest of the slate, so let’s get into our experts’ best bets and help you bet better on this week’s NFL games.
Chris Farley: Cleveland Browns +1.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-105)
For weeks on end, we’ve told bettors to wait to fade Pittsburgh. Regardless of how pedestrian their offense looks and the data that supports that claim (26th in points per game, 28th in yards per game), the Steelers find ways to win. Depending on their opponent, it’s often the “right choice” to wager on Mike Tomlin’s grungy team than it is to bet against them. The key phrase there is depending on the opponent.
Cleveland’s win at Baltimore last week is what we call a firestarter. Momentum is a real thing– in psychology, it’s described as “added or gained psychological power which changes interpersonal perceptions and influences an individual’s mental and physical performance.” The Browns overcame a lot of misfortune to earn a W last Sunday– terrible penalties that gave the Ravens first downs (5) and additional chances to score, as well as egregious turnovers like a pick-six on their opening drive. But Myles Garrett, Deshaun Watson, and the Browns simply didn’t give up. Down 31-17 entering the fourth quarter, Cleveland scored 16 unanswered points in the game’s final 14 minutes to earn one of the most entertaining comeback victories of the NFL season. Watson played one of his best games as a Brown, showing elite accuracy and arm strength in the most pressing moments. Unfortunately, we learned this week that Watson is having season-ending surgery on his shoulder, and therefore will not play on Sunday. Dorian Thompson-Robinson hardly provides the same confidence, but we still love the Browns’ momentum.
The Browns return home with a very winnable schedule and the fate of their success in the AFC North in their own hands. The Steelers, who have won four of their last five contests, are due to regress. That’s especially true for their offense, coming off a big day on the ground (205 total rushing yards). They also already beat the Browns in Pittsburgh, so this is a revenge game for the surging home team. It’s Browns or nothing in this spot.
Andrew Ortenberg: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers Over 41.5 (-110)
I like the over a lot in this game. Baker Mayfield has quietly been cooking over the last 2 weeks, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. Over his last 3 games, he has 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception, and now he is facing a 49ers defense that is much more vulnerable than in years past. Adding Chase Young at the trade deadline was nice, but San Francisco needs a cornerback even more right now. Before their win over the Jags last week, the 49ers’ defense had really been struggling. In their 2 previous games, they got absolutely picked apart by Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins.
Brock Purdy struggled for a few weeks, but his down-to-down efficiency always remained elite, he just had some bad turnover variance. Even in his meltdown game against the Bengals, Purdy still averaged a ridiculous 11.8 yards per attempt. San Francisco just dropped 34 points on Jacksonville, and Tampa’s defense isn’t what it used to be either. The Bucs gave up only 6 points last week, but that was with a rookie quarterback in Will Levis making a road start. In their game before that against the Texans, Tampa gave up 39 to a different rookie signal-caller in CJ Stroud.
John Martin: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (-110)
Well, what do we have over here? Game of the Year potential in Week 11? It’s the Super Bowl rematch on Monday Night Football. This one between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs is in Arrowhead, which could be key. These are obviously 2 of the best teams in football; you could make the very fair argument that they are the 2 best teams in football. Most power ratings I respect have it 1-2 in favor of Philadelphia, which is why in some ways this is a difficult bet to make. It’s not automatic inside of a field goal, by any stretch of the imagination. The Eagles are possibly on their way to a repeat Super Bowl appearance and the only loss they took this season has come when Lane Johnson, their star offensive lineman, left in the middle of the game. Other than that, it has been perfect.
This is going to be a square opinion, but there just simply isn’t a quarterback in the NFL I trust to deliver in a big game more than Patrick Mahomes. He’s going to scramble for a crucial first down. He’s going to find somebody over the middle. He’s going to make it happen. This Chiefs defense is also much better than a season ago, as proven by heroics against the Dolphins. In all likelihood, that would have been a loss if not for the Tyreek Hill fumble scoop-and-score. Time after time, Kansas City’s defense has stepped up to the challenge. We also know that there are few better with a week of preparation than Andy Reid. In what should be a fantastic game, the Chiefs should be able to find a way to get it done in the end and cover the number inside a field goal.