The Cincinnati Reds (79-75) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81) to Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.

Season series: Pirates lead 6-4

The Reds are 6-4 over their last 10 games and lost 2 of 3 games vs. the Minnesota Twins to start the week. Cincinnati lost 5-3 Wednesday as a -128 favorite to fall to 37-41 at home this season. The Reds are a half-game back of the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card.

The Pirates are 34-41 on the road and are also 6-4 over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh won 2 of 3 against the Cubs from Tuesday to Thursday, picking up the series finale 8-6 as a +151 underdog.

Pirates at Reds projected starters

RHP Luis Ortiz vs. LHP Andrew Abbott

Ortiz (4-5, 4.85 ERA) makes his 15th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 78 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 6 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home loss vs. New York Yankees Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 2-2, 4.54 ERA in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 8 appearances

Abbott (8-5, 3.68 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 102 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road win vs. New York Mets Saturday
• 2023 home stats: 3-3, 3.46 ERA in 48 IP over 10 starts

Pirates at Reds odds

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pirates at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 4

Moneyline

PASS.

Given how well the Pirates are playing — they’ve scored 21 runs over their last 2 games — there’s little value on the Reds at -165. However, Cincinnati will have a sizable pitching advantage and probably should be that large of a favorite.

Run line/Against the spread

BET REDS -1.5 (+115).

The Pirates have been electric at the plate as of late, but they have also given up 6 or more runs in 3 straight games. They have lost 3 of their last 6 games by 2 or more runs.

The Reds are an MLB-best 93-61 ATS despite having covered just 1 of their last 5 games.

With a pitching advantage in their home park and in a game that could play a big factor in their postseason dreams, combined with the Pirates’ flaws on the mound lately, the Reds have good value to cover.