New York Yankees at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Miami Marlins (60-56) welcome the New York Yankees (59-56) to loanDepot park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.

Season series: First meeting since the Yankees swept a 3-game set in 2021

The Marlins toppled the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 on Wednesday and are currently 3rd in the NL East 13 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves. Miami is 32-24 at home this season and 3-7 over its last 10.

The Yankees are coming off a 9-2 road loss to the Chicago White Sox Wednesday and despite being above .500 are last in the AL East 12 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. New York is 24-28 on the road and 4-6 over its last 10.

Yankees at Marlins projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Vasquez (1-1 1.17 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP 4.1 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 15 1/3 IP.

Rumored to be called up to make a spot start Friday
Last start: No-decision 5 IP 3 H 0 ER 3 BB 1 K in 6-3 home loss vs. Orioles on July 5
Has not pitched on the road in 2023 and has never faced Miami

Luzardo (8-6 3.52 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP 2.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 130 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss 5 1/3 IP 6 H 4 ER 2 BB 8 K in 6-2 road loss vs. Texas Rangers last Friday
2023 home splits: 4-2 2.64 ERA in 78 1/3 IP through 13 starts

Yankees at Marlins odds

Moneyline (ML): Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Marlins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Yankees at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5 Yankees 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Yankees (+120) have struggled as of late and are just 1-3 over their last 4 games. New York has been far stronger at home than on the road where it is just 24-28 on the season.

However New York’s moneyline isn’t worth a play with questions surrounding its starting pitcher. Miami (-145) is likely to come out on top Friday with Luzardo on the bump but there is better value to be found on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN MARLINS -1.5 (+140).

The Yankees are just 4-7 over their last 11 games with all 7 losses coming by 2 or more runs.

Miami is 34-24 straight up at home and 15-25 on the run line as a favorite.

While that’s not a great record at this value and considering how poorly the Yankees have played along with having an inexperienced starter likely on the mound taking MARLINS -1.5 (+140) is still a worthy play.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).

If there’s one thing both teams have been good at this season it is hitting the Under.

New York is 51-60-4 O/U and Miami is 51-61-4 O/U this season. The Marlins have gone Under in 4 straight games and have gone Under in 6 of their last 7.

Luzardo has had 2 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. New York has scored 3.3 runs per game over its last 3 outings plating 2 runs once and 1 run once. It has cashed the Under in 4 of its last 7.

Take UNDER 8.5 (-115).