New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The New York Yankees (58-54) and Chicago White Sox (48-65) clash Monday night as they open a 3-game series. First pitch from Guaranteed Rate Field is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET.

Season series: White Sox lead 2-1

New York split a 4-game set with the Houston Astros over the weekend and the Yankees are 3-3 through 6 August games. The Yanks hit 8 home runs against the Astros and that’s indicative of the club being more productive on offense of late. New York has clocked a .777 OPS since July 29. From July 5-28 the Yanks sputtered with a .649 OPS.

The White Sox snapped a 5-game losing streak Saturday at the Cleveland Guardians. The ChiSox also won 5-3 Sunday so they head into this series on a 2-game win streak. Chicago has not won 3 straight games since June 2-8 when the ball club won 5 in a row.

Yankees at White Sox projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Cole (10-2 2.64 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP 2.4 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 143 1/3 IP.

Last start: Win 7 IP 2 ER 4 H 2 BB 8 K in 7-2 home win vs. Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday
Owns a 1.71 ERA and 0.68 WHIP since the All-Star break
2023 road stats: 3-1 2.26 ERA in 55 2/3 IP; 1.22 ERA 0.89 WHIP last 37 IP
Career vs. White Sox: 3-1 3.91 ERA in 25 1/3 IP

Cease (4-5 4.61 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP 3.9 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 121 IP.

Last start: Loss 1 2/3 IP 7 ER 7 H 3 BB 1 K in 11-1 road loss vs. Texas Rangers Wednesday
Owns a 5.55 ERA over his last 7 starts
2023 home stats: 1-3 4.26 ERA in 61 1/3 IP
Career vs. Yankees: 0-1 9.45 ERA in 13 1/3 IP

Yankees at White Sox odds

Moneyline: Yankees -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | White Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+100) | White Sox +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Yankees at White Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4 White Sox 3

Moneyline

The White Sox are playing just their 2nd series at home since the second half got underway. While Chicago went just 3-9 across 12 home games in July the club has had solid stretches in its home environs. From April 30-June 25 the Pale Hose went a robust 17-11 at home.

The Sox are a lean but let’s PASS unless we can get a tag of +145 or better.

Run line/Against the spread

Cole has benefited from a .272 batting average on balls in play (.269 BABIP in inning leadoff situations .250 BABIP with runners in scoring position). He’s a stud pitcher and is on a roll but is likely being overrated by an artificially tamped-down 2.64 surface ERA.

Cease has some figures that swing the other way (.329 BABIP overall .355 BABIP in high-leverage situations). He also logged solid home numbers in 2021 and 2022.

The righty-righty match-up works against both lineups (both hit lefties better). But both clubs tend to bat a lot of right-handed bats and that plays into more of a strength (or avoids a versus-left deficit area) for Cease (career .646 OPS allowed vs. righty bats).

The Yanks have a much better bullpen on paper but peg the two units being closer when measured with similar analytics from above. Yankee relievers for example have been buoyed by a .266 BABIP. Also you can figure on the Chicago ‘pen being in slightly better territory with regard to fatigue especially at the back end.

Off the stat page and in the intangibles category peg Chicago as a high-energy group coming off a much-publicized donnybrook at Cleveland Saturday.

The average MLB club has played 30 1-run games per Baseball Reference. Both New York and Chicago have played 34. The Pale Hose are a lean; the Run Line allows for the nod to Cole as the better pitcher.

BACK THE WHITE SOX +1.5 (-120).

Over/Under

Comparing scoring and run-prevention to expected levels for each side nets numbers mostly in alignment. With this match-up tilt those numbers toward Chicago and away from New York. But they are on par with overall scoring.

STEER CLEAR.