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The Atlanta Braves (64-35) and Boston Red Sox (54-47) will square off for the 4th and final time this season on Wednesday night with 1st pitch from Fenway Park scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1
The Braves hold a commanding 11-game lead in the NL East despite going just 3-6 in their last 9 games. They rank 3rd in MLB with 551 runs scored and are 5th with a team ERA of 3.81.
The Red Sox are riding a 3-game winning streak and currently sit in 4th place in the AL East 8 games back of the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve won 14 of their last 19 games making them one of the hottest teams in the league.
Braves at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Strider (11-3 3.78 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.09 WHIP 2.7 BB/9 and 14.6 K/9 in 116 2/3 innings.
- Strider leads the majors with 189 K’s
- He’s struck out at least 9 batters in each of his last 6 starts
- Last start: No-decision 6 IP 4 H 4 ER 1 BB 13 K’s against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday
Bello (7-6 3.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 90 innings.
- After allowing 3 or fewer runs in 14 straight starts he gave up 6 ER in 4 IP against the Oakland Athletics last Wednesday
- Red Sox are 5-2 in his last 7 starts
Braves at Red Sox odds
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Braves at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5 Red Sox 3
Moneyline
The Braves are an impressive 9-1 in Strider’s last 10 starts a stretch that includes 3 wins when he allowed 4 or more runs. This lineup has proved it can overcome the rare poor start by Strider.
On the flip side Bello struggled in his last start allowing 6 ER and 3 HRs against the A’s. I like the Braves to win this game but I’d rather bet the spread PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
In each of the Braves’ 9 wins during Strider’s last 10 starts they won by at least 2 runs. They’ve given him good run support too averaging 7.1 runs in his last 10 starts which makes his job easier.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-105) to cover the spread and win by multiple runs.
Over/Under
In their 1st 3 meetings this season the total went under twice the lone exception being a 9-3 win by the Braves in May. The total went Under in Bello’s start against Atlanta earlier this year a 5-2 win by the Red Sox.
BET UNDER 9.5 (-105).