The Baltimore Orioles (58-37) and Tampa Bay Rays (60-39) open a pivotal 4-game AL East series Thursday as they jockey for positioning atop the division. First pitch from Tropicana Field will be 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network).

Season series: Orioles lead 3-2

The Orioles beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-5 Wednesday to avoid being swept in the 3-game series. Baltimore has been on a tear lately even after dropping 2 of 3 against Los Angeles as it entered on an 8-game win streak. The O’s surging offense has helped the cause and ranks 8th in runs scored (473) this season.

The Rays have sputtered coming out of the All-Star break going 2-4 in their last 6 games — including a current 4-game losing skid after being swept by the Texas Rangers in 3 games to start the week. Tampa Bay still owns the best ERA in baseball (3.73) and is 4th in runs scored (526).

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

Gibson (9-6 4.77 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.35 WHIP 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 115 IP.

• Is tied for the MLB lead with 20 starts
• Has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 turns

Glasnow (3-3 3.78 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP 3.4 BB/9 and 13.4 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP.

• The Rays are 5-4 in his 9 starts
• Has allowed just 1 earned run in 3 of his last 4 starts going at least 5 innings in all 4 appearances

Orioles at Rays odds

• Moneyline (ML): Orioles +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-135) | Rays -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Orioles at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5 Orioles 2

Moneyline

These 2 teams are tied for the lead in the AL East which makes this a huge series. The Rays (-185) have been the better team all season long and I think they’ll get back on track with a stud like Glasnow on the mound after getting swept by the Rangers.

However the value just isn’t there with this moneyline price especially against a quality team in the Orioles.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Gibson has struggled as of late allowing at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. That doesn’t bode well for the Orioles who are facing a potent Rays lineup and an ace in Glasnow.

After passing on the ML I’m comfortable with the Rays covering. Tampa has 5 wins in Glasnow starts and they were all by at least 2 runs.

BET RAYS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under

Eight or more runs have been scored only once in Glasnow’s last 4 starts. He should be able to limit the Orioles’ offense but the bigger question is whether Gisbon can do the same against the Rays.

As long as Gibson can give Baltimore a quality start the total on this game should go Under as it has in 3 of the first 5 meetings of the season between these teams.

BET UNDER 8 (-105).