Winning the offseason isn't the same as winning in the regular season, and by now, every NFL fan should know this. However, the offseason is a time for optimism, and the teams that do improve during the spring and summer have an opportunity to make up ground—or extend it—in their respective divisions.
This is vital because winning the division is still the easiest path to the postseason, even in an era with three wild-card teams in each conference.
With the 2023 draft in the rearview, now feels like an appropriate time to examine the biggest offseason winner in each division. By looking at factors such as roster turnover, coaching changes and free-agent, trade and draft value, we'll pinpoint which teams improved the most relative to their divisional counterparts.
Below, you'll find a look at each division's biggest moves, winners and how we expect it all to impact the 2023 standings.
AFC East: New York Jets
This was one of the easier calls to make, even if it's based purely on potential.
The AFC East had three squads finish above .500 in 2022, and the team that didn't is the one that stands to gain the most ground.
The reigning division champs, the Buffalo Bills, had a mixed offseason. They did a great job of retaining players like Jordan Poyer, Shaq Lawson and David Quessenberry in free agency, but they didn't add much instant-impact talent aside from rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid.
The Miami Dolphins had a similarly mundane offseason, though they did acquire cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Cam Smith to help bolster their 27th-ranked pass defense and dreadful red-zone defense. Opponents scored touchdowns on 59.3 percent of their red-zone trips against Miami last season.
The New England Patriots did well to bring in players like wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, tight end Mike Gesicki and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Adding offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien should do wonders for quarterback Mac Jones and the rest of the unit too.
However, the New York Jets finally have an above-average quarterback after trading for Aaron Rodgers. The former Green Bay Packers starter wasn't great in 2022 (91.1 passer rating), but he's a big improvement over Zach Wilson, a player who struggled both on the field and in the locker room.
"In speaking to some players on the team, his approach, or lack thereof, was not well regarded," The Score's Jordan Schultz said of Wilson on the Pat McAfee Show (h/t Steve DelVecchio of Larry Brown Sports).
New York also hired Rodgers' former offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, for the same position and added former Packers receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. The Jets have done about all they can to make the transition easy for the future Hall of Famer.
Even if Rodgers isn't able to regain his MVP form, even a small upgrade at quarterback should make the Jets playoff relevant. Their defense that ranked fourth in both points and yards allowed last season. It just might not be enough to put them atop the loaded AFC East.
Projected AFC East Finish
- 1. Buffalo Bills
- 2. New York Jets
- 3. Miami Dolphins
- 4. New England Patriots