For consecutive offseasons, the San Francisco 49ers have a quarterback embroiled in trade rumors. Last year, they kept Jimmy Garoppolo, and that decision worked out for them, but Trey Lance faces a much different situation right now.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, teams have inquired about Lance's availability with the thought that Brock Purdy will be the 49ers' starter.
Purdy led San Francisco to the 2022 NFC Championship Game after taking over for Garoppolo (broken foot) in Week 13. Ironically, Garoppolo assumed the starting role in place of Lance, who fractured his ankle in Week 2.
In March, Purdy underwent successful surgery on his elbow, and the 49ers signed quarterback Sam Darnold in free agency.
At the NFL owners meetings, head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that he "expects" Lance and Darnold to split first-team reps while Purdy recovers from surgery. He also said the former has a chance to regain the starting position.
Lance will turn 23 years old in May, and he's still a raw talent who's in the early stages of development. In addition to throwing for 797 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions with a 54.9 percent completion rate, the 49ers signal-caller has rushed for 235 yards and a touchdown in eight outings.
The 49ers saw Purdy perform a lot better than Lance in their small sample sizes of playing time, which may give them the confidence to move forward with the former. Yet the latter has drawn interest—likely because of his untapped potential.
If the 49ers trade Lance, we must consider recent deals that involved teams that traded former first-round quarterbacks on their rookie deals to get a feel for the potential market value.
In 2019, the Arizona Cardinals traded Josh Rosen (the 2018 10th overall pick) to the Miami Dolphins for a 2019 second-round pick and a 2020 fifth-rounder. The Cardinals dealt Rosen after he struggled mightily in his rookie campaign, throwing for 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions with a 55.2 percent completion rate. They selected Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft.
In 2021, the New York Jets traded Darnold (the 2018 third overall pick) to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 sixth-round pick along with second- and fourth-rounders in 2022. Darnold went through ups and downs through three seasons with Gang Green, throwing for 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions with a 59.8 percent completion rate in 38 contests.
The 49ers might find it difficult to land a second-round pick for Lance. The Rosen and Darnold trades didn't yield good results for the acquiring teams, and that might make general managers more cautious when dealing for former first-round QBs.
Also, keep in mind that Lance has only suited up for nine games since 2020, his final year at North Dakota State. He's still extremely raw.
Based on the aforementioned factors, we've constructed five trade packages that potential suitors could offer the 49ers for Lance.
Houston Texans
- San Francisco 49ers receive: 2023 4th-rounder (No. 104 overall)
- Houston Texans receive: QB Trey Lance
Almost a week away from the 2023 NFL draft, the Texans have become a team of intrigue. Initially, many draft analysts expected them to take a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick, but the Texans could go in another direction.
The Athletic's Dane Brugler dropped an interesting rumor in his recent seven-round mock draft.
"I'm told there isn't a unanimous belief among the Houston coaches that available quarterback will be worthy of this pick," Brugler wrote for his projection at No. 2. "At this point, I'm still leaning Stroud—if not to Houston, then probably to another team that comes up for him."
Per NBC Sports' Peter King, the Texans had "significant" trade talks with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick before general manager Ryan Poles struck a deal with the Carolina Panthers.
Perhaps the Texans have their sights set on one quarterback, and if the Panthers select him, Houston could pass on this class of signal-callers in favor of Lance.
Remember, new Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans came over from San Francisco. So he's had an up-close look at Lance over the past two years. If the young quarterback made a decent impression on the 49ers' former defensive coordinator, Houston may opt to send a middle-round pick for him.
The Texans could go into training camp with Davis Mills and Lance in a battle for the starting position. In the event that the latter shows enough promise, Houston could avoid settling for someone in this year's class and still get its quarterback of the future.
In Houston, Lance would play behind an offensive line with three former first-round picks, including three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. He can rely on tight end Dalton Schultz as a safety blanket in the passing game. The Texans could use the No. 12 overall pick to select the top wide receiver on their board for a significant upgrade at the position.