The 2023 free-agency cycle is mostly behind us, as 108 of our top 150 free agents and 80 of our top 100 have signed. So, let’s take an early look at the 2024 class.

Obviously, many of these players won’t hit the open market. Several will sign extensions this offseason. Some will be franchise-tagged next March. But plenty will reach free agency, and some might be traded. Of the 30 players on last year’s edition of this story:

  • 15 signed extensions with their original teams (one, Brandin Cooks, was later traded)
  • 12 changed teams (four via trade: A.J. Brown, Roquan Smith, Bradley Chubb, Cooks)
  • Two more requested trades: Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel
  • One remains a free agent: Isaiah Wynn
  • One retired: Tom Brady

The goal here is twofold: To look at the best players who might become available and to explore the biggest contract questions facing teams this offseason.

NFL

1 Trade Each Team Must Consider with Less Than a Month to Go Before 2023 NFL Draft

First-round picks from the 2020 class were not included, as teams have until May 2 to decide on their fifth-year options for 2024. All stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted, with contract information from Over the Cap. Ages as of Week 1 of the 2023 season are listed in parentheses.

 

1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (26)

2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (25)

Let’s lump these two together, as they are very difficult to separate.

Jackson’s contract situation has dominated this offseason, and it could be months (or longer) before it is resolved. The Ravens haven’t given Jackson the deal he wants, and other teams haven’t shown significant interest to this point, but that shouldn’t reflect poorly on Jackson the player.

Durability is the biggest concern for perhaps the NFL’s most electric runner after he missed the final five games of 2021 and 2022, and it’s the primary reason I considered Hurts at No. 1. But Jackson didn’t miss a game because of injury through his first three seasons (he rested the 2019 finale and missed a 2020 game because of COVID-19). Hurts has missed three games because of injury in three seasons, including two in 2022. Both players’ styles put them at risk.

Hurts was the MVP runner-up in 2022, but Jackson won the award unanimously in 2019 and has clearly been the better passer: In four seasons as a full-time starter, Jackson ranks ninth in EPA per dropback (includes sacks and scrambles but not designed runs) and 13th in EPA per pass attempt (excludes sacks and rush attempts). In two seasons as a full-time starter, Hurts ranks 13th and 19th, respectively. He took a huge leap in 2022 by ranking ninth in both categories, but Jackson ranked first and second in his MVP season.

Running the ball, they’re neck and neck. Since 2019, Jackson narrowly leads in rush EPA per game, and Hurts narrowly leads in EPA per rush, with Jackson averaging 2.5 more carries per game.

Yes, Hurts is 19 months younger, is perhaps still ascending, has drawn rave reviews for his leadership and nearly helped his team to a Lombardi Trophy. But his body of work is smaller, and he’s had far better help, playing in a versatile scheme led by an aggressive coach, behind the league’s best offensive line and throwing to an excellent set of weapons. Jackson’s legs were showcased in Greg Roman’s offense, but he’s had to carry a passing game that has been limited by scheme and middling receivers.

Jackson will have a new coordinator in 2023, whether that’s in Baltimore with Todd Monken or somewhere else — or maybe he’ll consider sitting out the entire season. Hurts, meanwhile, should cash in with a deal worth at least $46 million annually, perhaps any day.