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The Derek Carr era in Las Vegas appears to be over. Coach Josh McDaniels announced Wednesday the Raiders have decided to sit the 31-year-old quarterback for the final two games of the season and start Jarrett Stidham instead. McDaniels insisted that benching Carr isn’t indicative of a decision the team has made about Carr’s future, but the reality is that if they believed he was still a part of their long-term plans, they’d keep playing him.
The other part of that reality is that sitting Carr, who signed a three-year, $121.5 million contract last offseason, eliminates the risk of him getting injured, potentially ruining his trade value as well as putting the team on the hook for $40.4 million over the next two years due to injury guarantees in his contract. Instead, the Raiders can move on from a healthy Carr this offseason while incurring a minimal dead cap hit of about $5.6 million.
Which brings us to why we’re here. If the Raiders indeed decide to go in a different direction at quarterback, that means they’re likely going to try and trade Carr, who, it must be noted, has a no-trade clause in his contract and will be able to steer any trade discussions because of it. Theoretically, Carr could block a trade altogether and force the Raiders to either cut him or bring him back.
Under the scenario he’s amenable to a trade, what teams might be interested? Well, there is certainly no shortage of teams that could use improved quarterback play, but you’d have to think a team like Houston, among others in the early stages of rebuilding, is likely aiming for younger options who can be secured in the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, teams like Indianapolis might be sick of trying to solve their QB woes with another team’s castoff.
Even still, that leaves a handful of organizations that might be interested in a three-time Pro Bowler who recently helped lead the Raiders through an extremely adverse 2021 season and into the playoffs. Those teams could try and wait out the Raiders, hoping they cut Carr, but given the lack of palatable options on the veteran market and the price to move up and acquire a young QB in the draft, that could be a dangerous game to play.
While Carr’s recent play has probably left a sour taste in the mouths of some evaluators, it’s worth remembering that Carr’s game is generally well-appreciated by executives around the league, as he finished 12th in The Athletic’s Mike Sando’s Quarterback Tiers survey just five months ago. Of course, Carr hasn’t exactly played exceptionally in the time since — he’s thrown a league-leading 14 interceptions and is sporting his lowest passer rating since his rookie season — but he’s still likely to hold appeal based on his solid first eight seasons in the league.
How much appeal, exactly? Well, let’s field some offers and find out.
Washington Commanders
As the person repping an organization that traded two third-round picks last season and took on an eye-opening contract for a quarterback in Carr’s range-ish, my hand is up. There’s a world in which Carson Wentz flashes his big arm over the final two regular-season games while leading Washington to the postseason. Keeping him — while renegotiating his $26.2 million next season — would allow the offense to build on any progress this season rather than have a fourth different Week 1 starter in coach Ron Rivera’s four seasons.
However, assuming Wentz wows is dangerous based on his past two-plus seasons. Additionally, there is no guaranteed money remaining on the final two years of his contract. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke is a 2023 free agent. The Commanders will draft well outside the expected range of top prospects (currently slated to pick No. 21), meaning the best shot at a QB upgrade is in the veteran market.