The NFL quarterback carousel spins every year, and the 2023 offseason will be no exception. While there's still plenty of football to go this season, there are plenty of teams that have one eye on their present and another on their future. Some of those organizations are in position to make the playoffs, but unless they're one of the teams clearly in the mix for the Super Bowl with a quarterback any other team would envy, they're just getting by under center.
Going through the league's quarterback situations and where they stand right now, I counted 19 teams that have a reasonable chance of starting a new quarterback in Week 1 of next season. Let's run through those 19 and look into what happened to each team in Week 15, what their quarterback situation might look like in 2023 and who they could add this offseason. Some might only make an addition if their team craters over the final few weeks of the season. Others have been spending the entire season scouting new quarterbacks, knowing they'll be in the market for a replacement this spring.
I'll go through these teams alphabetically, beginning with a team that gave a rookie his first start on Sunday:
Atlanta Falcons
Current starter: Desmond Ridder
What happened in Week 15: Ridder, making his first career start, wasn't able to spark a moribund Falcons passing attack. He went 13 of 26 for just 97 yards, 70 of which went toward first-round pick Drake London. Ridder contributed 38 yards on six carries, but 18 of those came on the final snap of the game, when he ran the clock out despite trailing by three points as Atlanta lost 21-18 to New Orleans.
How has it gone in 2022? Atlanta's offense has been excellent on the ground, with the league's sixth-best rushing DVOA heading into Week 15. With the Falcons running at one of the highest rates in football, they ranked 12th in the league in offensive DVOA, which was shocking for a unit which didn't look great heading into the season and never really got star tight end Kyle Pitts untracked before his season-ending knee injury.
Most of that came with Marcus Mariota at the helm. Mariota struggled for consistency and continued to take too many sacks, but he averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt and ran for just under 34 yards per game. The Falcons got more than what they paid for after giving him $6.8 million for the 2022 season, but after coach Arthur Smith benched Mariota for Ridder, he left the team to undergo knee surgery.
Contract for 2023: Mariota is owed $12.5 million in the second and final year of his deal, but none of it is guaranteed. It certainly feels like the two sides are heading for a breakup in 2023, especially if the Falcons end up believing that Ridder can take over starting duties in 2022. The rookie will enter Year 2 of a four-year, $5.4 million pact next season.
Other internal candidates: Former Titans backup Logan Woodside is the No. 2 quarterback behind Ridder. Converted tight end Feleipe Franks, who was a quarterback in college, took two snaps under center during Sunday's loss. Neither player is likely to figure in the quarterback conversation in 2022, let alone 2023.
Ties to any likely free agents: Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone was the quarterbacks coach in Chicago under John Fox and then Matt Nagy, when the Bears were trying to develop Mitch Trubisky into a starting-caliber quarterback. I don't think the Falcons are going to look toward Trubisky as their answer under center, but if they choose to move forward with Ridder and want a backup, Trubisky could be a player they target.
Ryan Tannehill isn't a free agent, but as he enters the final year of his contract, the Titans could go in a different direction. Smith helped unlock a new level of play from Tannehill after the Titans acquired him on a salary dump from the Dolphins, so it stands to reason that he might be interested in reuniting with his former charge in Atlanta. After years of cap constraints, the Falcons have more than $74 million in cap space next season, so they could afford to bring Tannehill in on his existing deal if so inclined.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A young quarterback in the first round. The Falcons project to pick No. 7 overall, per ESPN's Football Power Index, and with Ridder in the fold, a late-season burst of victories seems unlikely. They used a third-round pick on Ridder, which suggests it sees him as a possibility as their quarterback of the future as opposed to an inevitability.
Plenty of teams have used similar midround selections on quarterbacks and then taken another a passer toward the top of the draft the following year, including the Jets with James Morgan and Zach Wilson, the Browns with DeShone Kizer and Baker Mayfield, and the Panthers with Jimmy Clausen and Cam Newton. If the Falcons don't have a passer they love in this rookie class, they'll draft the best available defensive lineman, sign a veteran and give Ridder a chance to start in 2023. If there is a young quarterback they admire, though, I don't think the organization lets Ridder stand in the way.