Had someone told Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo at the start of training camp that they would enter December primed to be the most lucrative free agent passers available in 2023, it’s fair to wonder whether the veteran quarterbacks would have believed it themselves.
As improbable as it seemed at that time — Smith was a journeyman truly competing for a starting job for the first in years; Garoppolo was banished from the 49ers all offseason while recovering from surgery as the team peddled him around the league — that appears to be where the market is heading. The 49ers have become perhaps the best team in the NFC since Garoppolo, 31, replaced injured youngster Trey Lance, only doing so after agreeing to a thorough reworking of his contract that allows him to become an unrestricted free agent next year. And Smith’s remarkable ascent in Seattle, becoming the league’s second-highest rated passer (107.9) through 12 weeks — even as the superstar he replaced, Russell Wilson, withers in Denver — is among the more shocking quarterback developments in recent years. (Garoppolo is the fifth-rated passer at 103.0.)
Now, both are poised to cash in, significantly, atop a tepid free agent market at the most important position in pro sports. And plenty of plugged-in agents and executives around the league anticipate those quarterbacks staying right where they are.
Lamar Jackson is a lock for a franchise tag in Baltimore. Tom Brady might hang around and play another year somewhere, though he did “retire” for a few months just this year. Outside of that, the upcoming quarterback market includes the likes of Jacoby Brissett (who performed admirably for the Browns before making way this week for Deshaun Watson); Daniel Jones (whom the Giants probably want to keep around on a short-term deal); Taylor Heinicke (ditto for the Commanders); and, well, Mike White. Slim pickings compared to past years, leaving two NFC West quarterbacks who had become afterthoughts suddenly very much top of mind for franchises that covet a seasoned quarterback.
I probed a handful of executives and established agents who have negotiated all manner of quarterback deals over the years to get a sense of the upcoming market. Most anticipated the Seahawks making a concerted effort to keep Smith, 32, after getting a haul of draft picks for Wilson and still ending up with the superior quarterback in 2022, already surpassing expectations at 6-5. They should be in position to take a quarterback high in the first round — Denver (3-8) relinquished its top pick and much more in the Wilson swap — but Pete Carroll is the oldest coach in the NFL and having a proven commodity at QB while the rookie learns is more his style.
“Can’t you see them keeping Geno, using those [early] picks on blue chip players and taking a quarterback on Day 2 [of the draft]?” proposed one NFL general manager, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he isn’t permitted to speak about pending free agents.