Week 11 of the college football season is upon us. Though there are still a few weeks left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff selection committee told us Tuesday where things stand with the release of its second rankings:
These four teams are the only unbeaten FBS teams in the country, so it's easy to see why the committee placed them in the Top Four. It may seem like this quartet is fated to land in the playoff semifinals come December, but there are plenty of things that can happen with a lot of football to be played.
Let's run through the potential disaster scenarios for these Top Four teams.
- Georgia (9-0)
- Ohio State (9-0)
- Michigan (9-0)
- TCU (9-0)
No. 4 TCU: Lose to Texas or Baylor and in Big 12 Championship Game
TCU vaulted into the Top Four this week, leapfrogging Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama after their losses. The Horned Frogs are the only undefeated team in the Big 12, but they have two big road games on deck.
This week, TCU will travel to Austin to take on No. 18 Texas. The Longhorns are seven-point favorites and defeated the Horned Frogs 32-27 last season in Fort Worth. It looks like Texas is primed to pull of the upset, but that wouldn't knock out TCU.
The Frogs close the season on the road against Baylor and at home against Iowa State.
TCU should be favored versus Baylor, which has won only once over the last seven games in the series, but two road games in a row is tough for any team. The Horned Frogs have lost their last three against Iowa State, and the Cyclones knocked off TCU 48-14 last season, but ISU is 4-5 this season and just halted a five-game losing skid.
One loss wouldn't ruin TCU's playoff hopes. But two certainly would. In that scenario, even becoming the Big 12 champion likely wouldn't be enough to get a bid to the playoff.
If the Horned Frogs emerge from the Texas, Baylor and Iowa State games with just one loss, they will have to win the Big 12 Championship Game. TCU would likely play Texas, Baylor or Kansas State, all of which are 4-2 in the conference. If it loses that game, it would finish as a two-loss, non-conference champion and certainly miss out on a bid.