We’re entering the second half of the season as Week 10 begins this Thursday Night. To begin the Week 10 slate, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a Week 8 rematch between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to forecast the action.

Here is our SGP, but also be sure to keep an eye on our NFL picks for every game this season.

Carolina Panthers +3 (-110)

Under 44.5 (-110)

Terrace Marshall Jr. anytime touchdown (+240)

Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.

Carolina Panthers +3 (-110) over Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers recently closed +4 just 2 weeks ago in Atlanta, covered in that contest and should have won barring the DJ Moore helmet incident. So why are the Panthers suddenly +3 at home? Yes, the Panthers looked terrible in their blowout defeat to the Bengals, but the same Bengals squad also blasted the Falcons 35-17 only 3 weeks ago. The Falcons were +6.5 underdogs versus the Bengals in that game.

Last week the Bengals were -7 favorites over the Panthers. The market is indicating that they believe both teams are truly only separated by 1-2 points when you look at the Panthers-Falcons showdown from 2 weeks ago as well as the similarity to both teams’ closing lines against Cincinnati. Oddsmakers are too down on the Panthers following their humiliating loss last week and this team is actually being undervalued in this game. The Panthers should be able to cover and possibly even win outright on Thursday.

Under 44.5 points (-110)

In Week 8 the total for the matchup between these two teams was set at 41. The over was a sweat-free win, as 71 points were scored — but it should be a different outcome on Thursday. There were a ton of points scored in the game, but 1 touchdown was scored on a pick-6 and 34 of the 71 total points were scored in the 4th quarter alone. Still, it seems like an overreaction to change a total 3.5 points in just 2 weeks with the same teams. The weather will likely play a factor in this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football since rain is projected in the Charlotte area all afternoon and night. The Week 8 matchup between these teams was indoors and in perfect conditions, but this game will be far from that. Anticipate a lower-scoring game on Thursday.

Terrace Marshall Jr. anytime touchdown scorer (+240)

Last time these teams played, Moore shredded the Atlanta secondary for 152 yards on 6 catches with a touchdown. Because of that, I think the Falcons defense will come with a better plan to limit Moore. That presents an opportunity for Terrace Marshall Jr., who has the same number of red-zone targets as Moore this season. Marshall’s role in the Carolina offense has continued to grow in the last few weeks as he had 15 combined targets in Weeks 8 and 9. Against the Falcons he had 4 receptions on 9 targets for 87 yards. If Atlanta puts more emphasis on limiting Moore, it could mean a big day for Marshall. 

Top 3 NFL Week 10 betting offers

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