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The New York Yankees and Houston Astros play Game 2 of their best-of-7 American League Championship Series Thursday. First pitch at Minute Maid Park is slated for 7:37 p.m. ET (TBS).
ALCS: Houston leads 1-0 after a 4-2 triumph in Wednesday’s opener
Regular-season series: Houston won 5-2
The league posted a .687 OPS at Minute Maid Park this season but the Yankees registered just a .598 mark in their 3 regular-season losses there. They added just 5 hits and 2 walks against strong pitching from RHP Justin Verlander and 3 relievers Wednesday. New York struck out 17 times Wednesday and has fanned 44 times in 4 total games at Minute Maid.
The Astros won the AL West with an American League-best 106-56 record and nothing has slowed them down in the postseason. Over a 9-game stretch including playoff and regular-season contests Houston is 8-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
Yankees at Astros projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Severino went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA 1.00 WHIP 2.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 102 IP over 19 regular-season starts.
- Went 5 2/3 IP with 3 ER against the Cleveland Guardians Saturday in his last turn
- Missed over 2 months in the 2nd half with a lat injury. Owns a 2.49 ERA in 4 starts since returning Sept. 21
- Pitched a game at Houston June 30 and allowed 2 ER in 6 IP
Valdez made 31 starts in the regular season. He went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA 1.16 WHIP 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 201 1/3 IP.
- Yielded 3 runs in 6 IP in a June 23 start at Yankee Stadium; owns a 6.75 ERA across 3 all-time starts against New York (2019-22)
- Posted better numbers on the road each of the last 2 seasons; notched a 3.54 home ERA in 2022
- Pitched last Thursday against Seattle and allowed 2 ER in 5 2/3 IP; owns a 6.75 ERA over his last 6 postseason games (2021-22)
Yankees at Astros odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -140 | U: +112)
Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4 Yankees 3
Moneyline
Luis Severino has looked quite good since his late-September return to action.
Framber Valdez could get tangled up in too much traffic with control problems especially considering the Yanks are dangerous in drawing walks and working the count. New York is the lean but consider holding off for a price north of +135.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Actually prefer a Yankees +1.5 wager in this game but AVOID this RL action unless that tag for the visitors drops to -165.
Over/Under
The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 Yankees-Astros games and was a +100 winning play in Wednesday’s series opener.
But peg Game 2 as a swing toward the bats. Both bullpens are too far over their skis with fine surface numbers over recent weeks and both starters have some generous rates around the margins that have tamped their ERAs down just a bit.
Take the OVER 6.5 (-140). Consider a partial-unit play unless the price comes down to -125.