|
|
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres open their National League Championship Series Tuesday. First pitch in the contest at Petco Park is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1).
Regular-season series: Philadelphia won 4-3
Philadelphia made the postseason field as a wild card. The Phillies swept the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 in their Wild Card Series and beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their Division Series to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2010. Philadelphia — which logged a 3.98 ERA in the regular season — has posted a 2.55 ERA over its 6 playoff games.
The Padres were also a wild card entrant into these October brackets and they have already defeated 212 regular season’s worth of wins in their series triumphs over the New York Mets (2-1) and Los Angeles Dodgers (3-1). Friars hurlers have piled up 66 strikeouts while posting a 2.80 ERA over 61 playoff frames.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Wheeler made 26 starts in the regular season going 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA. He notched a 1.04 WHIP 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 153 IP.
- Owns his same 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last 69 games (2020-22)
- Logged a 3.84 ERA on the road in the regular season (1.85 ERA at home)
- Has allowed 3 ER on 6 hits in 12 1/3 IP this postseason
- Has held current San Diego bats to an aggregate .651 OPS in past meetings
Darvish went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He logged a 0.95 WHIP 1.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over 194 2/3 IP.
- Has yielded 4 ER in 12 postseason innings this year including 3 runs on 3 solo homers in his last start Wednesday at the Los Angeles Dodgers
- Has held current Philadelphia batters to an aggregate .601 OPS in his career
- Logged a 2.60 ERA and 0.88 WHIP across 86 2/3 home innings in the regular season
Phillies at Padres odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-220) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4 Padres 2
Moneyline
Figure the Padres as being a tad overrated by their performance in 1-run games (30-17 in the regular season) and by what their pitchers have done in the postseason. San Diego has pitched well but it has also been the beneficiary of the Mets and Dodgers going a combined 9 of 57 (.158) with runners in scoring position.
Yu Darvish has benefited from a .250 batting average on balls in play this season. In his career he has notched a pedestrian 4.60 ERA across 45 playoff innings.
BET PHILADELPHIA (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. There is too much juice and not enough leverage on the preferred Philly side.
Over/Under
Both starting pitchers are quite good and the bullpens are rested. The weather report calls for an inward breeze and the Under is the lean. But don’t be satisfied with paying into that action — look for a +100 return or better and PASS until that point.