The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet Friday in game 3 of the MLB NLDS at Citizens Bank Park. The Atlanta Braves look for another win to take a 2-1 series lead. The Philadelphia Phillies hope to keep home field advantage while taking a 2-1 lead.

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a shutout game 2 victory, and it’s their third shutout since September 1. The Braves have shown all season that they can win in a variety of ways, as their offense gets a lot of credit, but their pitching staff was fifth in team ERA and seventh in WHIP. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the Braves with 4 hits, while Travis d’Arnaud and Matt Olson have combined for 6 hits and 8 RBI. The Atlanta Braves didn’t announce a starting pitcher at the time this article was published.

The Philadelphia Phillies need to get their offense going, as it’s the second time in 4 games they’ve been held to 2 or fewer runs. The Phillies have lost 11 of their last 4 games when scoring 3 or fewer runs. Bryce Harper leads the Phillies with 6 hits and 1 RBI, while Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto have combined for 7 hits and 3 RBI. Aaron Nola gets the ball, and he was 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA and 235 strikeouts this season. Nola is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 games following an off day and 38-16 in their last 54 overall. The Phillies are 16-7 in their last 23 playoff home games and 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The under is 6-2-1 in Braves last 9 playoff games. The over is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 home games. The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

The Atlanta Braves didn’t announce a starting pitcher at the time this article was published, but they already used their top two arms, so I’m sure nothing will turn me off from Nola at home. Nola hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13.1 innings, and he shutout the Braves through 6 innings the last time he faced them. The Phillies have also won 14 of their last 19 home games. No matter who the Braves trow out there, I’m going to lean Phillies at home.