Sunday wasn't a great day to be a struggling NFL quarterback. Several of the passers who flailed through the first three weeks of the season didn't turn things around in Week 4. One appears to have paid for it with his job, as Mitch Trubisky was benched at halftime for the Steelers, who turned to rookie first-round pick Kenny Pickett. Unfortunately for coach Mike Tomlin's team, Pickett then threw three interceptions in an eventual 24-20 loss to the Jets.
With just under a quarter of the season in the books (thanks, 17-game schedule), this is about the time in which teams have enough game tape to start seriously reevaluating their offseason decisions. Teams desperate to turn things around after slow starts are going to make adjustments. Some of those can be schematic. We can see teams rotate players in different ways or even make changes to less visible parts of their roster.
Making a change at quarterback, though, is the biggest decision a coach can make. Think about how it transformed the Titans in 2019, when Ryan Tannehill took over a 2-4 team and helped get it to the AFC Championship Game. The same move can tear a team apart and get a coach fired, as Doug Pederson found out with the Eagles when he benched Carson Wentz for Jalen Hurts in 2020.
It's no fun rooting for quarterbacks to get benched, but it would be naive to ignore what's happening or wonder about what teams might do to kick-start their offenses in the weeks to come. Let's talk about the Pittsburgh situation and then get to a few other quarterback jobs around the NFL where the current starter might be in danger. It's risky to make a move too early, but I wonder whether the Steelers might have made their move too late:
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tomlin is one of football's best coaches. I don't like disagreeing with the 50-year-old Steelers leader, because he has more than earned whatever benefit of the doubt he needs over the past 15-plus seasons. I might take issue with some of his game management decisions at times, but just because I don't think he's necessarily the most analytics-focused coach in the league doesn't mean he can't be aggressive at times or make wise choices. You don't go 15 years without a losing record by not being a smart operator.
With that being said, I'm not sure I understand how and why Tomlin made the choices he has made over the past two weeks at quarterback. After Trubisky struggled for the third straight week in a 29-17 loss to the Browns in Week 3, Tomlin publicly refused to even consider the possibility of changing his quarterback in advance of Sunday's game against the Jets. After suggestions earlier in September that the Steelers might keep Pickett on the bench for the entire season, it seemed as if Tomlin wasn't close to making any sort of change.
And then, down 10-6 at halftime Sunday, he suddenly changed his mind. Trubisky came out, Pickett went in. With Tomlin saying he felt like the team "needed a spark," Pickett might have burned too hot. The rookie went 10-of-13 for 120 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns in his debut, but he threw three interceptions, including a pick on a Hail Mary to end the contest.
It's fair enough for Tomlin to say the team needed a spark. I just have one follow-up question: What changed? The Steelers won the opener against Cincinnati, but it required five takeaways, a blocked extra point and an injured long-snapper. Trubisky wasn't a meaningful part of the offense. In Week 2, they scored 14 points on nine drives in a loss to the Patriots. Four days later, Trubisky & Co. scored 17 points on 10 meaningful drives in their loss to the Browns. Didn't they need a spark then, too? Wasn't it clear they would need a spark against the Jets before the game began?
Trubisky, 28, wasn't great in the first half against the Jets, but it also wasn't as if he was any different than the guy we saw checking down over the first three weeks of the season. He went 7-of-13 for 84 yards with an interception stemming from a Diontae Johnson drop. He was sacked three times, and he exhibited a habit of drifting out of the pocket at the end of his dropbacks, but those are issues we saw before the Jets game, too.
If there ever was an ideal time for the Steelers to transition from Trubisky to Pickett, it would have been shortly after the loss to the Browns, which took place on a Thursday night. They were facing a mini-bye, which would have given them 10 days to prepare Pickett. The Jets matchup — a home game against a team that ranked dead last in passing DVOA — was arguably the most favorable spot on Pittsburgh's schedule for a young quarterback.
Instead, Pickett came in Sunday without recent first-team reps, without a game plan installed to take advantage of his strengths and without being put in position to prepare mentally for the game as a starter. He looked good when he was running quick game and throwing up 50-50 balls for his talented group of receivers, but when he wasn't comfortable or had to work through his progressions to try to find someone later in the play, it usually ended badly.
One of the best arguments for not making the change to Pickett in Week 4 was the Steelers' immediate schedule afterward. They are about to face a brutal slate of opposing defenses, with matchups against the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles before their Week 9 bye, and the Saints immediately thereafter. In an ideal world, they might have waited all the way until December, when they get the Falcons, Panthers and Raiders.
By making the move anyway during Week 4, Tomlin has realized the worst of both worlds. He didn't get the benefits of having Pickett fully prepared and now likely has the No. 20 overall pick in line to start against that devastating string of opponents. If Tomlin goes back to Trubisky, Steelers fans — and Trubisky himself — will know the veteran is a short-timer, which won't do wonders for Trubisky's confidence. It also wouldn't feel great for Pickett to get his opportunity and immediately find himself back on the bench after a three-interception half.
The future is Pickett, and a couple of years from now, it probably won't matter much whether he showed up in Week 3 or Week 4 as a rookie. If the Steelers want to win in 2022, though, I'm not sure either Pickett or Trubisky would be the ideal option. They need someone who protects the football, avoids takeaways and lets the defense win games, which is what Cooper Rush has done during his 3-0 stretch filling in for an injured Dak Prescott in Dallas. The 2019 Steelers didn't have much at quarterback with an injured Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, but when they won the turnover battle, they went 8-3. They were 0-5 otherwise.
It's entirely possible Pickett is named the starter for Week 5, looks more assured after a week of practice as the man under center and hits the ground running from there. Roethlisberger threw two picks in his 2004 debut filling in for Tommy Maddox and then won each of his first 15 regular-season starts. If the Steelers go on a winning streak, this loss won't feel like a big deal.
As the Steelers try to maintain Tomlin's streak of seasons at or above .500 and compete in the AFC North, though, they don't have much of a margin for error. Waiting until halftime to insert Pickett felt like an unforced one.
Carolina Panthers
If the Panthers had a rookie first-round quarterback waiting in the wings, I'm not so sure Baker Mayfield would have made it out of Week 4. Facing a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in DVOA, he averaged 5.5 yards per attempt, had three passes batted down at the line of scrimmage and turned the ball over three times in a 26-16 loss. (One of those came on a handoff to Rashard Higgins, who looked to be more guilty for the turnover.) He was vociferously booed in the fourth quarter at home, and the highlight of his day appeared to be silencing the boos with a garbage-time touchdown drive.
The Panthers didn't convert a single third down until that fourth-quarter drive, and their 25.5% conversion rate on third downs is the worst mark in football through four games. In watching their failures on third downs Sunday, many come down to Mayfield. He was stuffed on a third-and-1 sneak to start the game. He missed an open Tommy Tremble for one first down with a throw to the wrong shoulder, then did the same thing on a corner route to an open DJ Moore, whose attempt to catch the wayward pass led to it being intercepted. On a mirrored route concept in the fourth quarter where it was clear Shi Smith ran his route to the correct depth, he sailed what should have been another easy completion.