Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

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The Boston Red Sox (72-79) and New York Yankees (93-58) meet Sunday  at 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN) to close out their 4-game series at Yankee Stadium.

Season series: New York leads 12-6

Boston has lost 4 straight games and is just 5-11 since Sept. 5. Against the Yanks the Red Sox have lost 5 in a row and they’ve allowed 5-plus runs in each of those setbacks.

The Yankees have shaken off some 2nd-half hitting woes to log a .967 OPS while winning 6 straight. And Yankee Stadium has given New York’s AL entry a lift in recent weeks. The Yanks are 13-2 in their last 15 games in the Bronx.

Red Sox at Yankees projected starters

RHP Brayan Bello vs. LHP Nestor Cortes

Bello (2-6 4.75 ERA) has appeared in 11 games making 9 starts. He has a 1.73 WHIP 4.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP.

  • Faced the Yankees 2 starts back (Sept. 14) and allowed 3R (0 ER) on 6 hits and 1 BB (6K) in 5 IP
  • Has a 2.80 ERA across his last 35 1/3 IP

Cortes (10-4 2.67 ERA) is tabbed for his 27th start. He has clocked a 0.97 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 145 IP.

  • Faced Boston (and Bello) on Sept. 14: allowed 1R on 3H in 5 IP with 2 BB and 7 K
  • Owns a 2.25 ERA 0.90 WHIP over his last 4 starts
  • Has held batters to a .701 OPS over his career; at Yankee Stadium he’s allowed a mere .648 OPS

Red Sox at Yankees odds

Provided by USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub Lines last updated at 11:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Red Sox at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4 Red Sox 3

Money line

Boston is a slight lean but with the streaks in play that lean is better leveraged on the Run Line.

Run line/Against the spread

Both teams play in more 1-run games than average. In Boston’s last 9 losses 5 have been by 1 run and 2 have been by 2 runs.

Figure the bullpens being heavily involved here. That’s less of a Yankee advantage than what shows in surface stats.

TAKE BOSTON +1.5 (-150). The price here isn’t terribly attractive: consider a partial-unit play unless the tag drops to -145 or better.

Over/Under

The team numbers for these teams would lean just slightly Under and that would be a reversal of what’s happened the first 3 games of this series (Over 3-0). But there is enough Over lean to Cortes and the Yankee bullpen on a breeze-out night at Yankee Stadium to make this view mixed.

PASS.

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