Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season wasn't always pretty, but you can't knock the entertainment value. Seven of the 13 games in the two afternoon windows were one-score games, and an eighth was a tie. Five were decided by scores in the final two minutes. Multiple teams missed what would have been game-winning field goals, while another was stymied by a blocked extra point. The Chiefs and Ravens were back to their old selves, but the story of the week was upheaval.
Seven playoff teams from last season lost Sunday afternoon, with four losses coming against teams that missed the postseason a year ago. Both No. 1 seeds from 2021 were defeated. After the Rams lost in the season opener Thursday, their opponents in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers, were dispatched amid 2 inches of standing rain by the lowly Bears. The AFC champion Bengals lost in a far more agonizing manner.
Let's get into a handful of those teams to get a sense of whether fans should be meaningfully worried by what they saw over the weekend. There's not much to say about the Cardinals getting manhandled by the Chiefs, who looked at first glance to be even better than the team we saw a year ago. I want to hit the five teams that made it to the playoffs in 2021 and then lost to a non-playoff team Sunday.
I'm also going to add two teams that made the playoffs last season, and I'll hit them first. The Steelers ended up topping the Bengals in overtime, but I wonder whether both fan bases might feel worse about their teams heading into Week 2. Let's start with Cincinnati, which seemed to overcome its own mistakes by the end of the game, only for the unbelievable to occur:
Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 result: Lost 23-20 to Pittsburgh Steelers
During the 2021 playoffs, we talked about several reasons the Bengals had gone from being 7-6 and in the middle of a crowded playoff picture to somehow coming out of the AFC as conference champs. The AFC North's quarterbacks were all injured to one extent or another. Their pass rate spiked. Joe Burrow was more confident about the left knee he injured in 2020. The defense coalesced. Nobody believed they had a chance against the Titans and Chiefs. All of those factors meant something.
The biggest difference between the Bengals who lost to the Bears and Jets and the ones who beat the Chiefs and Titans, though, was plain as day. Through the first 13 games of their season, they turned the ball over 21 times. When they turned the ball over two or more times during that 13-game stretch to start the season, they went 0-5.
Over their final seven games of the season — leaving aside a meaningless Week 18 game their starters took off — Burrow & Co. went 6-1. They turned the ball over just two times, with one giveaway in their win over the Titans and their subsequent victory over the Chiefs.
We knew the Bengals weren't going to turn the ball over once per month for any extended period of time, but the regression past the mean didn't have to come so suddenly and be so dramatic. Burrow and Cincinnati turned the ball over on four of their first five drives in Week 1, with the quarterback losing a fumble on a strip sack and tossing three interceptions. He added a fourth pick later in the game. Burrow was strip-sacked yet again in overtime, but teammate Samaje Perine fell on the fumble.
The Bengals probably win this game without those giveaways. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick took the first interception to the house for a pick-six, giving a limp Steelers offense seven crucial points. The Bengals might have been in position to attempt a long field goal if Burrow had merely avoided the strip sack in overtime, with Cincinnati instead being forced to punt. Even with the giveaways, the team was in position to win on an extra point at the end of regulation or a 29-yard field goal in overtime, neither of which produced points.
Should the Bengals be concerned about the turnovers? Not really. We know from history a five-giveaway game is historically unlikely. Watching those plays back, the Steelers deserve credit for making some spectacular catches. T.J. Watt somehow managed to catch a full-speed Burrow pass 0.2 seconds after it got into the air, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Cameron Sutton, who had a great game, made an excellent catch undercutting a Burrow pass up the seam. Ahkello Witherspoon tipped a pass to himself for his pick. Those throws are more likely to hit the ground harmlessly in weeks to come than they are to turn into interceptions again.
What would concern me as a Bengals fan, though, is that while the offensive line might be better after their free agency spending spree, the job of protecting Burrow might not be finished. He was sacked seven times by the Steelers on 60 dropbacks. Any line with Watt and Cameron Heyward is going to be fearsome, but the Bengals won on just 56.3% of their pass block attempts, per ESPN Stats & Information research; that's better than their 48.8% mark from a year ago, but it's still below league average.
While the Bengals addressed center and the right side of their line in free agency, the left side had a rough day. Left tackle Jonah Williams, a first-round draft pick in 2019, allowed two sacks to Alex Highsmith, including a strip sack. Debuting left guard Cordell Volson, who beat out Jackson Carman for the starting job, was bull-rushed by Heyward for one sack and asked to come across the line and kick out Watt on a play-action concept. You can guess what happened next.
The other reality is Burrow himself is responsible for taking some of these hits. This was true in the playoff game against the Titans, in which he was sacked nine times on 46 dropbacks, and again true against the Steelers. He's patient in the pocket when it comes to getting rid of the football, but that coolness can lead to sacks. The overtime forced fumble is on Burrow, who even saw Steelers defensive back Arthur Maulet blitzing off the edge and chose to keep the ball. He can sometime shrug off those hits and keep the play going. Instead, he handed the Steelers back the football for what ended up as a game-winning drive.
The special teams probably won't be this bad over the remainder of the season. The Bengals lost long-snapper Clark Harris to an injury in the fourth quarter, and while it might not seem difficult to find a player who can snap the ball in special teams situations elsewhere on your active roster, it's a specialized skill. Teams carry only one long-snapper on their active roster, and we saw the impact when a high snap led to Evan McPherson missing a 29-yard chip shot in overtime. The duo of Drew Sample and Hakeem Adeniji was unable to slow down Fitzpatrick, who saved the game with a crucial blocked extra point at the end of regulation.
The Bengals likely will be fine. Burrow won't turn the ball over this often. They'll find a long-snapper. They won't have key extra points blocked every week. Wideout Ja'Marr Chase should have had his first touchdown in the fourth quarter on a play in which he ran alongside the goal line and seemed to break the plane on a drive in which the Bengals eventually did not score. Burrow missed an open Mike Thomas up the sideline for what should have been a touchdown later in the quarter. That stuff happens.
In the big picture, though, those feelings of invincibility that seemed to come from Cincinnati's spectacular run to the postseason might have taken a hit. What felt like a formula during December and January isn't going to be sustainable. The Bengals can win games other ways, and they nearly won this game despite those turnovers, but they're not immune to bad luck and sloppy play. More tangibly, with every other team in the AFC North winning on Sunday, the Bengals are now in last place.