We learned this week that the 2023 MLB season will feature a new balanced schedule with every team facing each of the other 29 clubs, but what's left of the 2022 slate is decidedly unbalanced and will play a huge part in framing the upcoming postseason picture.
There are 12 spots in the postseason bracket and 18 teams left with at least a 1 percent chance of securing one of those spots. per FanGraphs.
For each of those 18 teams—presented in alphabetical order by location—we'll take a look at what's left on their schedules to try to get a sense of what that bracket will look like a little over five weeks from now when it is finalized.
Are the Astros and Dodgers likely to hang on to their respective No. 1 seeds, or could a team from New York or Atlanta chase them down to claim home-field advantage?
And what of the other end of the playoff spectrum? Are San Diego and Seattle in good shape to hold off the likes of Milwaukee and Baltimore, or are we destined for some photo finishes in the inaugural race for the No. 6 seeds?
Atlanta Braves
Record: 79-49
Standings: 3.0 GB in NL East; NL's No. 4 seed
Remaining Schedule: 1 at STL, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. MIA, 2 at OAK, 3 at SEA, 3 at SFG, 3 vs. PHI, 3 vs. WAS, 4 at PHI, 3 at WAS, 3 vs. NYM, 3 at MIA
With 17 games left against Miami, Washington, Colorado and Oakland, Atlanta is all but guaranteed to make the postseason.
Even with a difficult schedule, it would have been next to impossible for Atlanta to blow it, boasting 14 more wins than the first runner-up in the NL wild-card race (Milwaukee).
But with that much of a gap and an easy schedule? There's no doubt the reigning champs will be back in October to defend their crown. And that makes Atlanta the only wild-card team comfortably in the postseason field.
It's just a question of whether it will be as the No. 4 seed or whether Atlanta can overtake New York to win the NL East and get the No. 2 seed—and the coveted first-round bye that comes with it.
The schedule is easy, but New York's is even easier. It could end up being a case similar to last year's NL West race in which both teams eclipsed 100 wins en route to an entertaining finish.
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 67-59
Standings: 10.5 GB in AL East; 1.5 GB for AL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 at HOU, 3 at CLE, 3 vs. OAK, 4 vs. TOR, 3 vs. BOS, 2 at WAS, 3 at TOR, 3 vs. DET, 4 vs. HOU, 4 at BOS, 3 at NYY, 3 vs. TOR
The good news is the Baltimore Orioles have eight games remaining against bottom-feeders. (Fifteen, actually, if you want to count the seven left against the last-place Red Sox.) If the O's take care of business against the A's, Nationals and Tigers—in series happening concurrently with the Rays facing the Yankees, Blue Jays and Astros, no less—they could make a serious push during the next 3.5 weeks.
The bad news is they've let a bunch of winnable games slip away as of late, and by the time they finish this road trip against Houston and Cleveland, they might be too far gone to salvage a wild-card spot.
Still, Baltimore is in a good position to finish the regular season with a winning record, which is a heck of a lot better than anyone was expecting as little as two months ago. And if the O's put in some serious work in their 10 remaining games against the Blue Jays, anything is possible.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 62-65
Standings: 16.0 GB in AL East; 7.0 GB for AL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. TB, 3 at MIN, 4 vs. TEX, 3 at TBR, 3 at BAL, 2 vs. NYY, 3 vs. KCR, 2 at CIN, 4 at NYY, 4 vs. BAL, 3 at TOR, 3 vs. TBR
The Boston Red Sox made things interesting there for a hot minute 10 days ago, getting back to .500 overall and within four games of the last wild-card spot.
But they're probably toast after recently losing six out of seven.
The nine games against Texas, Kansas City and Cincinnati within the next 3.5 weeks might keep the Red Sox hanging on to the fringe of the playoff picture for a while longer, but they desperately need to help themselves out against Minnesota, Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay to have any hope of leapfrogging enough teams to legitimately get back into the hunt.
Chicago White Sox
Record: 63-64
Standings: 5.0 GB in AL Central; 6.0 GB for AL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. ARI, 3 vs. KCR, 3 vs. MIN, 3 at SEA, 4 at OAK, 2 vs. COL, 1 at CLE, 3 at DET, 3 vs. CLE, 3 vs. DET, 3 at MIN, 3 at SDP, 3 vs. MIN
The Chicago White Sox just keep hanging around and hanging around, perpetually 2.0-5.0 games back in the AL Central.
But perhaps this is when they finally make their move.
Sixteen of their next 26 games come against teams with no playoff pulse, while four of the other 10 (three of them at home) are against the first-place Guardians. One need not squint that hard to see Chicago going 18-8 against that slate and finally storming into the driver's seat.
That final week of the regular season could be wild, though, with Chicago battling San Diego and Minnesota while Cleveland gets to host Kansas City for six games.
Cleveland Guardians
Record: 67-58
Standings: 3.0 games up in AL Central
Remaining Schedule: 1 at SEA, 3 vs. BAL, 3 vs. SEA, 3 at KCR, 3 at MIN, 3 vs. LAA, 1 vs. CHW, 5 vs. MIN, 3 at CHW, 3 at TEX, 3 vs. TBR, 6 vs. KCR
If the Cleveland Guardians don't win the AL Central, they will only have themselves to blame.
They have eight games left against the Twins and four against the White Sox. But, more importantly, they have three at home against the Angels, three on the road against the Rangers and nine left against the Royals, including wrapping up the regular season with six in a row, all at home, against Kansas City.
They could go 4-4 against Minnesota and 2-2 against Chicago yet still cruise to a division crown by going 12-3 or better against those other three teams with no postseason pulse.
The Guardians could also be a significant factor in the AL wild-card race because of their home games remaining against Baltimore, Seattle and Tampa Bay. If they sweep one of those series and get swept in one of the others, that would be huge.
Houston Astros
Record: 81-47
Standings: 11.5 games up in AL West
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. BAL, 2 at TEX, 3 at LAA, 3 vs. TEX, 3 vs. LAA, 3 at DET, 4 vs. OAK, 3 at TBR, 4 at BAL, 2 vs. ARI, 3 vs. TBR, 3 vs. PHI
The Houston Astros are definitely going to win the AL West, and the schedule is set up beautifully for them to secure the AL's No. 1 seed without any drama down the stretch.
Houston is already 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees, and it is about to begin an 18-game stretch against opponents who have effectively been eliminated from the postseason. The Astros are 32-14 with a plus-63 run differential against the Tigers, Angels, A's and Rangers this season, and one has to assume they're just going to improve those numbers in the next three weeks.
So, don't fret about staying ahead of the Yankees and instead think about maybe catching the Dodgers?
Some lot of good playing at home did for the Astros in either 2019 or 2021, as they went a combined 1-6 at home against Washington and Atlanta. But it could be critical if we end up with a repeat of the 2017 Fall Classic.
The Astros are 7.5 games behind the Dodgers, so it's an uphill climb to say the least. But let's check back in on Sep. 18 and see how things look after Houston presumably runs rampant through a favorable stretch.