The Chicago White Sox (61-58) and Cleveland Guardians (63-55) open a 3-game set at Progressive Field. Friday’s series opener is slated for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch.

Season series: Cleveland leads 8-5

The White Sox have lost 2 straight after winning 5 in a row from Aug. 12-16. Chicago had a fine 2nd-half ERA of 3.39 until coughing up 21 runs in Thursday’s loss to the Houston Astros.

The Guardians have pitched themselves to a 12-6 record since July 31. Cleveland owns a 3.24 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over that productive stretch.

White Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Triston McKenzie

Lynn (3-5, 5.62 ERA) owns a 1.25 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 65 2/3 IP in 12 starts.

• Has a 3.34 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over his last 5 starts
• Owns a 6.92 ERA in 5 starts against Cleveland since last May

McKenzie (8-9, 3.14 ERA) has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP in 22 games (21 starts).

• Owns a 6.65 ERA in his last 5 starts against Chicago
• Has come on strong in July and August with a 1.82 ERA in his last 8 starts
• Has a 2.82 ERA at home

White Sox at Guardians odds and lines

• Money line: White Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Guardians -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-190) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

White Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

White Sox 4, Guardians 3

Money line

Lynn has been undone by a .312 batting average on balls in play and a very low strand rate. The veteran righty has yielded a .355 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

McKenzie has some BABIP numbers that sway the other way, and he’s been more fortunate in 3rd-time around situations.

It all spells some leverage for the visiting team in a series of 2 teams closely matched when it comes to pitting real production against expected production based on analytics.

TAKE CHICAGO (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

Bettors not scared off buy the bullpen disparity of late between these clubs (last 30 days: Cleveland 2.31 ERA , Chicago 5.11) should consider the WHITE SOX +1.5 (-190).

Over/Under

PASS. No leverage on either side of this total and these prices.

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